Here are some things to keep in mind when you are going through the weekly NFL schedule.

1: Look-ahead spots – Fade teams in these spots.

With one game a week and a schedule mixed with very tough rivalry games and others against the bottom feeders of the league, situations pop up every week where you can figure out if a team is looking past a weaker opponent and ahead to a huge game (could be in primetime) against a quality opponent that will clearly get Team A’s attention.

For example, if you were to see the defending champion Seattle Seahawks hosting a bad team like Jacksonville one week prior to a huge game against a top rival like San Francisco. Seattle will definitely be laying plenty of points against the Jags but do you really expect the Seahawks to spend that whole week preparing for Jacksonville like it’s a must-win game? Seattle knows that chances are they simply have to show up and they can beat Jacksonville outright. They will have one eye looking past the Jags and onto that game with the 49ers because they know that will be an intense game and they want to be peaking at that time. A bad team like the Jags won’t get the Seahawks full attention and that’s a great time to grab all those points with the underdog Jags.

These spots pop up every week with opponents getting overlooked for a better one the next week and fading them works extremely well when those good teams are heavy favorites.

2: Let-down spots – Fade teams in these spots.

This is another situation that’s great to fade teams – typically favorites, after they’ve just had a very good, close game against a top-tier opponent. Win or lose, there’s bound to be an emotional letdown the next week as it’s impossible for guys to get to that same level of focus and intensity against a team that won’t bring it out of them. They are drained from the tough contest the week before and could come out sluggish or sloppy.

To work with my example above, let’s say the schedule was reversed and Seattle was playing San Fran one week and then were playing Jacksonville the following week. Win or lose against the 49ers, Seattle will be giving it their all in that huge rivalry game (that’s likely for 1st place) and will not be able to get “up” to the same level of sharpness the following week against a non-rival, bad team like Jacksonville. This is another great time to back Jacksonville ATS.

These letdown spots come up every week and don’t need to have a top-tier team to have it apply. Any team after playing a division rival and facing say, a non-conference opponent the next week is a spot where you can use the let-down theory to your advantage as well.

3: Division Sandwich scheduling spots – fade these teams.

This is something that incorporates both of the ideologies above as it’s a letdown and look-ahead spot all in one. When a team like Baltimore has got AFC North rival Cincinnati one week, Team X the next week and then another AFC North rival like Pittsburgh the following week, Team X is in a great spot to cover the spread. Baltimore is spent from their tough game with Cincinnati (letdown) and know that they have the Steelers on deck (look-ahead), so the Ravens aren’t going to give Team X their best game and are going to struggle to cover the spread.

4: Take teams who got caught looking ahead to a certain opponent when they play said team.

Again, this one is very similar to the three things I’ve already mentioned. But more specifically, when a team gets caught looking past an opponent to a perceived tougher one the following week – ideally losing straight up (SU) – they are in a great spot to be backed when they play that perceived tough opponent. For one, they are out for redemption after losing a game they should have won and will be sharp the following week. Two, they spent all that time the previous week getting excited to play this great team/rival and will be overly prepared for success.

Often times there is tremendous line value with these teams because the perception of them has changed after suffering a bad loss. A lot of recreational bettors only remember the last game and when they see that team lose against a bad opponent they’ll be hesitant to jump on board with said team the next week when in reality it’s the best time to take them.

5: Division revenge/flip-flop theory

This applies to the 2nd meeting of the year between division opponents. Simply put, you are to back the team that failed to cover the spread and/or lost SU in the first meeting.

An example would be Baltimore as -3 favorites goes to play Cincinnati and the Ravens win 24-14. Baltimore covered that first meeting and when the rematch rolls around they will typically get the majority of the action because everyone will remember that first game. But this theory calls for a play on Cincinnati ATS as they’ll have the revenge angle on their side and no team wants to get swept by a division opponent in a season. The bigger the beating in Game 1 – say a 21+ point victory – the stronger the play should be on that loser the 2nd time around.

This also works well for totals in these division games too. Again, simplistically when the first meeting goes ‘over’ the total you should come into the second game with a heavy lean on the ‘under’ and vice-versa.

6: Fade teams after two+ division games in a row when playing a non-division or non-conference foe.

This tends to work best when you’ve got a team playing a non-conference team in that next game as the intensity in the rivalry simply isn’t there. But after two straight weeks of bad blood games, it’s near impossible for these teams to not have an emotional letdown the next week as there just isn’t the same hatred involved for a team they rarely play.

7: AFC vs. NFC games ‘Over’ the total

Again this speaks to the lack of intensity and hatred between two opponents that rarely meet and the tackling and hits just don’t seem as hard. There is also a lack of knowledge in terms of knowing what these opponents do first hand because they just don’t play that often. Offenses tend to take charge in these games and we see plenty of points.

8: PLAY ON the Super Bowl winner first game of the season

The one sport where you actually don’t fade the winner of the championship first game of the year, you actually PLAY ON them against the spread.

9:  Travel

This strategy works well for me.  Fade the team that has to travel from the west coast to the east coast for a 1pm start.  The team traveling east will practice all week on the west coast then travel the day before to the east coast which is a 3 hour time difference for them.  They will have to try to adjust in less then 24 hours and be able to perform the next day at 1pm which would really be 10pm for them on the west coast.  More times then not they come out sluggish and end up losing the game.

 10.  Starting a rookie quarterback on the road for the first time

Teams with rookie QB’s eventually have to start their franchise quarterback on the road for the first time and in those games I look to fade them and take the home team.  It’s hard for any quarterback to go into any NFL stadium and win, you got rowdy fans heckling, the crowd noise is huge these days and to start a rookie who hasn’t been there done that, it’s hard for him.  This theory works even better when a rookie head coach and rookie QB are on the road for the first time.  PLAY ON the home team in this spot.

11.  Weather overreaction on totals

This one is a favorite of mine.  When the public see’s the weather to be ie. raining, snowing etc. they hop on the UNDER so much it pushes the total right down, sometimes up to 3-5 points.  Public see’s the reporters on the pre-game show all bundled up or holding an umbrella and all they talk about is how the players are going to react to the weather.  I see this as an opportunity to jump on the OVER just before kick off as I wait patiently for the bettors to overreact to the weather they see on the TV.   Let me tell you that in today’s age of technology, equipment makers know how to fit the right shoe to each condition and the right clothes and the right gloves to hold onto the ball so that there’s minimal effect of weather.  Plus, just think when your a kid you love to go out and play in the snow and rain and to these players they get a surge of their childhood when they get out there and love it and play there hearts out.  Wait for the right number you want and take the OVER.

12.  Back-to-Back Home games

I look to PLAY ON a team that is playing their second home game coming off an ugly home loss as a favorite from the last week.  As a favorite you are expected to win and when an ugly loss in front of the home town faithful happens it hurts.  With playing again at home the next week the players have a week at home in their own beds, home cooked meals and are surrounded with people they love.  Teams don’t have many home games in a season and teams need to take advantage of every home field advantage they can get.  I find the next home game teams will put together a better performance more times than not and look for these spots as the season rolls along.  If they are a home underdog the next game the play is more amplified.