Analyzing daily line movement, going through teams schedules, overreactions to a line and recognizing the use of “buy low, sell high” opportunities is key to picking winners and growing your return on investment. The ability to analyze line movements and decipher their meaning is something that takes a long time to develop. Bettors can only acquire this skill by consistently watching lines daily and breaking down the movements week in and week out.
Situational spot analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or under performed their normal levels relative to the money line or spread. Understanding how teams play and how they match up with the opposition is an important thing in every sport, but realizing when teams are in tough situations can be a good way to make money and get line value. Teams will have a letdown off of a big win or they will have a tough travel schedule ahead. Good teams will step up to play against good opponents and then play down to lesser competition the next game. Every sport’s regular season is a grind and teams aren’t going to give a full effort for every single game, you have to break down the schedule and pick these spots accordingly. Motivation and fatigue in scheduling is key to handicapping games and cannot be ignored. Desperation, when a coach calls out his team or when players hold a players only meeting are also key contributors to finding the right situation to move on. Marquee matchups in primetime are going to see bigger effort levels from teams and players and that can fit into the look-ahead spots and then have a letdown the next game after. I have already posted on drocksports.com specific betting situations for each sport that I look for on a daily basis under betting strategies. These are all great situational spots to look for when handicapping games and is my key to increasing my bankroll throughout the season.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the situations I look for:
- Previous Game Result – general public has short memories and reacts to what they saw last game, when this happens it can cause an overreaction to a line.
- Letdowns – a team coming off a big game/primetime game. Emotional letdowns equal a greater wager
- Look Ahead – a team that’s next game is against a rival/revenge/#1 team in the league. Early in the season look for a team that wants blood for an early playoff exit from last season.
- Streaks – teams on a long losing streak get called out by the coach or teammates (step up next game). Game after the win streak is lost theory used here
- Time Zones – is a team playing traveling from west to east? West Coast teams with early starts times (example: in the NFL the 49ers playing the Dolphins at 1pm EDT) typically don’t travel well. Look for long east/west coast road trips in the NBA/NHL and fade that team playing their last game of the road trip and first game back from the road trip.
- Previous Matchup Result – is one team out for revenge after an embarrassing loss? What was the result of the previous game played because the general public tend to react to what happened in the last match will happen again in the next match.
- Time of Year – early in the season fatigue doesn’t play a big role. New players to new teams and it takes time to adjust to new systems. The end of the year you have to question the motivation factor of teams with teams fighting for playoff positioning and if other teams are playing for better draft positioning.
- Fatigue – Are teams tired or rested? In the NBA/NHL I like to fade teams playing their 3rd game in 4 night, 4th in 6 nights and the rare 4th game in 5 nights a move will be more amplified. In football are teams coming off a bye week, or are they playing their 3 straight road game can all be factors here.
The big advantage of situational betting is that once you have identified these situations, you know what to look for each day and you can be patient and let the spot come to you. It’s beneficial to your handicapping and bankroll to identify scheduling spots prior to a season begins by circling the games that apply to these situations before hand. As the season progresses you can keep a close eye on your spots circled and move accordingly. Yes it can be a lot of work, but you will see long term gains with knowing when the right spot to attack is and you will know when to lay off a team in a certain spot. If you don’t do your own homework you will not see results, it as simple as that. I hope this will help you get the most out of each situation that arises and you can grow your investments.
Here are my betting situations by sport to look for:
Derek
drocksportsbetting@gmail.com
@d_rocksports
is a
Leave A Comment