Championship Weekend in the NFL is always a great Sunday of action as we’ve got familiar teams battling out with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Players can make names for themselves during this game and subsequently get two weeks to talk about it after they win, but with two Conference Championship games this year that are rematches from the regular season there is plenty to talk about this week:

Lines;

Green Bay (+7.5) vs. Seattle (-7.5); Total set at 46.5

Indianapolis (+6.5) vs. New England (-6.5); Total set at 53.5

As most of you may know, I’ve always been a totals guy to the core and that won’t change this weekend. I like both of these numbers where they sit right now and have made premium plays on both of them. As far as the sides go, both underdogs are the ones with revenge here after the Packers and Colts lost by double digits earlier this year to their respective opponents and I would not be shocked to see at least one of them win outright. However, to me this weekend has all the feel of Seattle and New England moving on so we can get two weeks of talk about how Seattle will be the “greatest defense ever” if they take down Manning and Brady in consecutive Super Bowls. Talking heads in the media love their storylines and there isn’t one much bigger than that in my opinion.

If I had to make wagers on these spreads, I’d lay the chalk with Seattle even at 7.5 because I think they blitz Rodgers and his sore calf early and often to not let him get it loose and come back strong in the 2nd half like he did against the Cowboys. The Seahawks defense has been lights out the past two months and give them a little blood in the water with a banged up QB and I believe they’ll feast on it.

In the AFC, I’d grab the points with the Colts because Luck can go toe-to-toe with Brady and this Colts defense will be out to make a statement. New England has run all over the Colts in three meetings during the Luck era and the results haven’t been pretty (40+ points scored by the Pats in each win). Indy did so much to slow down Brady and the passing game in those contests that it burned them and I think they change it up a bit this week. It might not be enough for the outright win, but this game will finish with a 3-4 point margin either way.

But let’s get back to how I’m attacking these totals:

First off, you’d have to go back to Championship Weekend in 2010 (after the 2009-10 season) to find a Championship Weekend that had both games sail ‘over’ the number. That year was when we had Peyton Manning still in a Colts uniform moving on to the Super Bowl and ultimately losing to Drew Brees and the Saints. More importantly though, both of those Conference Championship games were played indoors in a dome (Indy/New Orleans) and that factor can’t be overlooked as to why there were higher scores.

Since then there have been eight conference championship games played and only two of them have cashed ‘over’ bets based on the closing line – (note that you could have cashed an ‘over’ on the Ravens/Steelers game in January 2012 when the number was in the high 30’s but it closed at 40.5 and landed on 40).

It shouldn’t be too surprising to see that the lone indoor game during that span (SF/Atlanta 2013) was one of those two ‘overs’ with the other coming in the lone contest that had a total set below 40. Every other contest has cashed ‘under’ tickets for bettors and in my opinion that’s the only way to go this week.

With it being five years since both the AFC and NFC Championship games went ‘over’ (both indoors), taking both under’s here should provide you with a split at worst. You’d have to go even further back to the 2005-06 season to find a Championship Weekend that had both games played outdoors and went over the total, you’ve got history on your side with two ‘under’ plays this week.

Familiarity with one another is a big reason why these Championship games stay under the totals and given the fact that both games are rematches from this year, that familiarity factor can’t be ignored.

Specifically in the NFC,  Seattle’s defense has been phenomenal the past two months in holding teams to about one touchdown per game. The energy they feed off of at home is tremendous and with both sides banged up and bruised after a season’s worth of games, we won’t see the same fresh bodies go out there and put up 52 total points like they did in Week 1. Green Bay understands that to win up in Seattle their defense better bring their best stuff and force multiple turnovers, but even then it might not be enough.

In the AFC, we’ve got a high total in the 50’s because of New England’s recent dominance over the Colts since Andrew Luck has gotten there. I mentioned earlier that New England has scored at least 40 points in all three victories over Luck and of course all three of those games went ‘over’ the total. But the Patriots are a big part of that recent streak of “unders” during this week as they are 0-4 O/U in their last four Conference Championship games and three of those have come in the past three years. Indy has tightened up their defense down the stretch as they are 0-6 O/U in their last six games overall and as a franchise they’ve got a 1-7 O/U run going in playoff road games.

Finally, with all the pressure that comes with winning this game and getting to the “Big Dance” it’s no surprise that defenses show up and come to play. By it’s nature, defense is a read and react part of the sport and you are less likely to be affected by “pressure” on this side of the ball because you are just reacting. Offensive guys have to make sure they know the play, snap count, run the right route/find the right hole/make the right read, catch the ball, avoid the hit, and gain yards etc. That’s quite a lot of thinking that has to be in tune with the physical skills and either of those can crumble under pressure.

So with all of that on my side and history on the side of these games staying relatively low-scoring, I am attacking both Conference Championship games this week by playing ‘Under’ the total in both. History tells me that it’s quite rare for both games to sail ‘over’ the total this weekend; especially when they are outdoors in the elements. Sweeping the two plays is ultimately what I’m looking for though and with that happening in two of the past three years and six of the last seven Conference Championship games that have been played in the elements going ‘under’, I have little issue with the two plays with that kind of past on my side.

Premium Play #1: Green Bay/Seattle Under 46.5 ($440 to win $400)

Premium Play #2: Indianapolis/New England Under 53.5 ($440 to win $400)