NFL is just around the corner and in this post I am going to get you fine tuned for the upcoming NFL season from a bettors perspective. Preseason is wrapping up and it’s key to note that I wouldn’t take in too much to do with a teams record coming out of preseason. If a team owns a 4-0 record after preseason people tend to handicap week 1 games on how a team performed in the preseason by looking at their record. Big Mistake. For more September betting mistakes you can check out my article up here so you won’t be done wrong early in the football betting season.
With future bets I don’t really look to take any OVER’s because any time during the season a star player can get injured and would potentially crush my future play. Especially early on before the preseason I would never wager on an over win total for any team because of preseason injury’s.
Head Coaching Changes:
Falcons – In: Dan Quinn (former Seahawks DC)
Bears – In: John Fox (former Broncos HC)
Bills – In: Rex Ryan (former Jets HC)
Broncos – In: Gary Kubiak (former Texans HC)
Jets – In: Todd Bowles (former Arizona DC)
Raiders – In: Jack Del Rio (former Broncos DC)
49ers – In: Jim Tomsula (promoted from 49ers defensive line coach) Did Head Coach 1 game after Mike Singletary was fired
Top 5 teams ATS 2014 (reg season):
Arizona 11-5
Indy 10-5-1
Cleveland 9-5-2
KC 10-6
Minnesota 10-6
Top 5 Worst teams ATS 2014 (reg season):
Tennessee 3-12-1
Washington 5-11
New Orleans 6-10
3 tied 49ers, Jets, Jags 6-9-1
Betting Tip for September: Betting can be hard sometimes because there are basically no emotional letdowns in the first four weeks. By October, November and December you will see more letdowns and upsets across the board because early on no one is mentally or physically tired.
Atlanta Falcons: Quinn is in for the Falcons this year as he left the Seahawks as the DC there. This was a good move by the Falcons as they had the worst defense in the league a season ago (allowed 280 ypg and 7.9 passing yards per attmept). Yet implementing a new defensive system takes time and the right guys, but if Quinn’s work was as good as his D in Seattle was the Falcons have a bright upside on the defensive side of the ball. Quinn added 1st rounded DE Vic Beasley and picked up LB’s Brooks Reed and Justin Durant to fix the pass rush (only 22 sacks last season 2nd worst in the league). Quinn’s not the only bright spot for this team as they bring in a new OC in Kyle Shanahan. The Falcons are stable at QB with Matt Ryan behind center who has completed 66% and thrown for 54 TD’s over the past two seasons so no tweaking is needed to be done there. Kyle Shanahan runs a zone-heavy blocking scheme passed down from Mike Shanahan. They have a three back set with Tevin Coleman leading the way. There strength of schedule ranks dead last in the league as they have the easiest schedule of any. They only play 4 teams with winning records from a season ago and play 10 games against the two weakest divisions (NFC south, AFC South). This does give them a fighting chance to rebound from last years 6 win season. If you look closer at the schedule though the first three games are tough home to Philly on Monday then two road games at the Giants (who I expect to be improved) and at Dallas so they could open 0-3. I think the final 5 games will decide this win total of O/U 8.5 as they play 5 straight divisional games (first 3 road games and end with 2 home games) and that’s an incredibly tough stretch to finish the season. I believe they will be improved and this season I will look to them for at an ATS perspective rather than a future win total perspective or to win the division.
ATS spot: look to “Play Against” Atlanta at Jacksonville 12/20 third divisional road game in a row and sandwiched between the Panthers
Arizona Cardinals: After losing Palmer late last season to injury and losing in the playoffs, Palmer is back this season and looking to stay healthy and take his team to the playoffs again. Palmer suffered the same injury back in ’05 to his knee against the Steelers and I question if he will be the same this season. He had a career high in TD/INT ratio last season 11/3 and I think we will see regression in those numbers and could get back to the “Bad Palmer” days of averaging 1.5 turnovers a game like back in ’12 and ’13 seasons (15 games where he had 2 or more TO). This is the third year for head coach Bruce Arians and I like how he coaches and have built this team to compete in the once competitive NFC West Division. Arians with the Cardinals is 21-12 SU and 21-11-1 ATS over the past three seasons. He did lead his team to the playoffs even with being outgained by 64 ypg on the season which is incredible. The Cards lost DC Todd Bowles to the Jets for the HC position there and in now is James Bettcher the teams outside LB coach who worked under Bowles for the past two seasons as well on D they lost defensive lineman Darnell Dockett (SF), cornerback Antonio Cromartie (NYJ), and nose tackle Dan Williams (OAK). They did pick up free agent LB’s Sean Weatherspoon and LaMarr Woodley and DL’s Cory Redding and Corey Peters who is done for the season with a torn ACL and now have to start a 4th round rookie Rodney Gunter. Those are big shoes to fill at a key position in the trenches. Arizona allowed the 4th most passing yards against last season at an average of 260 pyg, but only gave up an average of 18.7 ppg (5th best in the NFL). There strength of schedule ranks 5th hardest in the league as they play 8 games verus winning opponents from a season ago. There first 4 games 3 of them are played at home but 2 are against division opponents. They have tough non divisional road games at Chicago (tough spot to play), Detroit, Pitt (Det, Pitt are back-to-back weeks 5 and 6) and Philly week 15. They have a really tough 2 three game stretches from weeks 5-7 at Det, at Pitt then at home Monday night to Baltimore. The other is the crucial final three weeks 15-17 at Philly, home to Green Bay and close off the season home to Seattle. With a schedule like this I see it very hard to duplicate what was done last season and that’s win 11 games. I like Bruce Arians as a coach I think they have to get a running game established early to take the pressure off Palmer, but with a win total set at 8.5 I see it hard with this schedule to win 9 games this season. Regression is going to hit this team and I like them UNDER 8.5 wins -105 (sportsbook)
ATS spot: “Play Against” Week 14 12/10 at home to Minnesota on a Thursday night off back-to-back road games vs division opponents 49ers and Rams
Buffalo Bills: Rex Ryan comes in from the Jets to take over the head coaching duties of a team who hasn’t been to the playoffs in 16 years. He instantly has to deal with a QB issue right away, as the Bills own 3 starting QB’s, that either one could possibly start. All 3 have seen time this preseason and he has made no clear decision as to who’s going to start. The Bills haven’t had stability at the QB position for years now (probably back to the Jim Kelly days) and until they get that figured out this team in my mind isn’t going to be a playoff team. This offense has had problems putting up points on the board, has ranked 22nd or fewer in the past ten seasons in points/game. They get in a new OC Greg Roman who runs an old school running game – physical style. He gets a talented LeSean McCoy in the backfield and can run a spread with Sammy on the out and Percy (if he can stay healthy) running a horizontal catch and running attack in the slot. They also picked up TE Charles Clay who can add a red zone threat to this team. Now the heart and soul of this team is their defense. Leading the league in sacks (54) in 2014 and more than 100 the past two seasons is scary good. There will be no problems again this season for this defense as it quite possibly could be the best in the league and with Rex in control look out!!. Buffalo ranks 19th in strength of schedule and doesn’t show a tough start to the season as they only play two true road games in the first two months (one game is in London, England). They get two southern teams at home in December (Houston and Dallas). Their tough stretch is three divisonal games weeks 9-11 with two of those roads in primetime at Jet’s (Rex’s first game back to NY) and at New England Monday night. Their O/U win total sits at 8.5 and with no #1 QB on this roster once again I think they will struggle moving the ball up the field (rank 26th in 3rd down conversions at 36.68%) and rank 3rd last in red zone offense (TD’s only) at 43.14%. You can’t just settle for field goals every game I would lean UNDER 8.5 wins for this team, but I am not firing on it.
ATS spot: look to “Play Against” the Bills 11/23 at KC after 3 divisional games and back-to-back prime time divisional games on a short week
Philadelphia Eagles: New look offense this year for Chip Kelly’s team as RB McCoy gone, QB Foles gone and WR Maclin gone. In are QB Sam Bradford, RB DeMarco Murray and RB Ryan Mathews. The new additions look poised to excel in Kelly’s up tempo offense as it opens up running lanes for straight a head running games of Murray and Mathews to excel at. Bradford has a great arm and WR Jordan Mathews and talented rookie WR Nelson Agholor will be deep treats for this aerial attack. On the defensive side of the ball new additions ILB Kiko Alonso and FS Walter Thurmond should be key adds to help this teams passing yards allowed this season (265 ypg allowed 2nd worst in the NFL last season). Overall this defense should be improved from last season and I believe this is the team to beat in the NFC East. Their strength of schedule ranks low at 23rd in the league and only play 6 games against winning opponents from a season ago. Their future win total is set at O/U 9.5 which I think is fair coming off back-to-back 10 win seasons I am not touching this win total this year, I do believe they are strong and should be fighting at the top for the NFC East crown.
ATS spot: With the Eagles always a poplar bet with bettors and fans love high powered offense’s I will be looking for a buy low sell high spot where the number is inflated to capitalize this season
Dallas Cowboys: Dallas was undervalued last season, they were a great football team and will be interesting to see this year how they respond off that questionable call in a loss to Green Bay in the playoffs last season. RB Randle takes over for the departed Murray this season and behind one of the best offensive lines in the league his skills can power the ball up the field and create first downs. Dallas led the league in time of possession behind Murray last season which you would think to be tough to replace, but with RB Randle I don’t think the running back position will be lost at all. With leading in time of possession last season it took alot of pressure off the last ranked team in defense in 2013 to ranked 15th in 2014 in points allowed and made DC Rod Marinelli look great. This season they get back LB Sean Lee on defense, but lost their top CB Orlando Scandrick to a torn ACL this preseason. That’s a huge loss for this secondary as they were 2nd in the league in takeaways (31) last season. Dallas ranks 24th in strength of schedule and play only 6 teams with winning records from last season. The O/U win total is set at 9.5 and think it will be hard to duplicate a 10+ win season with a powerhouse Eagles team and an improved Giants team in their division.
ATS spot: “Play On” at Green Bay 12/13 revenge game after last years tough playoff loss
Green Bay Packers: Packers are once again a leading contender to take home the NFC North crown at -250. They return all 11 starters from their #1 scoring unit from last season. However, they lose go-to guy WR Jody Nelson to a season ending injury which is devastating to the team, but WR Devante Adams steps in replace of Nelson and with star QB Rodgers throwing the ball in this West Coast offense I believe they should be just fine. On D they lose two cornerbacks to free agency – Tramon Williams and Davon House, but the rest of this unit is together again. Good news for the Green Bay defense is BJ Raji returns from injury after missing last season. If this team wants a chance to win the Super Bowl this they need more consistency from their D unit (23rd ranked run D at 120 ypg), need to perform better on the road (all 5 losses last season were on the road) and to protect and keep QB Rodgers healthy. Their strength of schedule ranks 14th and will have to play 8 teams with winning records from last season. Looking at their schedule doesn’t look too difficult to me especially the first 6 weeks with only 2 road games. With a win total at O/U 11 I wouldn’t touch it, I want to see how this team is going to respond after last years playoff loss to Seattle and how the team copes with the loss of Jordy Nelson. They are always dangerous at home and should be again this year.
ATS spot: first game of the season will be tough at Chicago as the Bears will want to seek revenge after 2 blowout losses last season (38-17 and 55-14) with a revenge game on deck vs. Seattle week 2 I look to “play against” Green Bay week 1
Seattle Seahawks: How is this team going to respond after a Super Bowl loss in what could possibly be one of the “worst calls in Super Bowl history”. Will they make it a third straight year to the Super Bowl? They will have to do it defying the odds as only 7 teams in Super Bowl history have come back to the big dance after a loss the previous year (Last team Bills in ’94). They lose DC Quinn to the Falcons, they have Chancellor holding out, but they do pick up a red zone weapon in TE Jimmy Graham from the Saints. This defense took some more big hits this past off season losing CB Byron Maxwell, LB Malcolm Smith, DE O’Brien Schofield and DT Tony McDaniel. The Seahawks allowed the fewest yards (267 ypg) and points (15.9ppg) in the NFL for a second straight year and with key losses and a holdout it will be hard to duplicate those results. Their strength of schedule ranks fourth hardest in the league, play 8 games against opponents with winning records from a season ago. I could see this team starting 0-2 with their first two games on the road at divisional opponent Rams then to Green Bay where the Packers will have revenge on their mind. They travel over 25000 miles this season second most in the league for a second straight season and with this grueling schedule wins won’t come as easy. As dominant as the Seahawks have been of late, maintaining that level of success is no easy task in the NFL. With a competitive NFC this season and a huge target on their backs they will be challenged each and every week. I personally see regression from this team this season, not saying they will only win 7 or eight games but a 10-6 or 9-7 season is more realistic I believe. The season win total is set at O/U 11 and I couldn’t love the UNDER 11 more. This is my favorite win total play in the NFL UNDER 11 wins +113 (pinnacle)
ATS spot: Week 2 9/20 at Green Bay “Play Against” off divisional game and play a revenge minded Packers team looking to seek revenge after last year Playoff loss
Baltimore Ravens: Ravens bring in another new OC (fourth in as many years) this year this time it’s former Bears HC Marc Trestman. With losing WR Torrey Smith and TE Dennis Pitta Baltimore needed to make a splash and grab up some offense at draft time the Ravens drafted WR Breshad Perriman and trading up for TE Maxx Williams both have the potential to be immediate contributors on offense. Trestman seems to be a good fit for this team as he should bring changes to the passing game which will ask QB Flacco to distribute the ball more quickly in his timing system and not sit too long in the pocket. On defense the Ravens lose DT Ngata to the Detroit Lions which leaves a big hole to fill, but the Ravens have faith in young DL Timmy Jernigan. The secondary gave up 249 pyg (23rd in the league), however did add FS Kendrick Lewis and top CB Jimmy Smith is back from injury. They rank 11th in strength of schedule and play 9 games against teams with winning records from a season ago. They have a tough schedule with trips to Denver (week 1), Arizona (week 7 Monday Night game) and an improved Miami team. I don’t believe this AFC North division is as strong this year as years past, but do have bitter rivalries as always. I see this team stepping up in the right moments and have a great coach running the show, John Harbaugh (averaging 12 wins in seven years). With their win total set at O/U 9.5 I see more value in them winning the division as I don’t believe it is as strong as years past. Ravens to win AFC North +166 (pinnacle)
ATS spot: “Play Against” 10/18 at 49ers off three divisional games in a row and have a primetime Monday Night game ahead
Miami Dolphins: Lets talk about these Dolphins. I see this team taking the AFC East crown from the reigning Super Bowl Champion Patriots this season. I see a breakout year for this team, they made some big splashes in free agency this off season signing DT Ndamukong Suh, WR Greg Jennings, TE Jordan Cameron and WR Kenny Stills. They also had a great draft and picked up WR DeVante Parker (1st round) and explosive RB Jay Ajayi (5th round). RB Miller and Ajayi make up a nice 1-2 backfield and with Tannehill being able to have more throwing targets this season I see this offense being a threat. They improved their run defense by adding Suh as it ranked 24th in the league last season giving up an average of 121 ypg. Their secondary is back and intact which held opponents to only 222 passing yard per game last season (6th in the NFL). Their strength of schedule ranks 17th middle of the pack this season and do some a tough stretch (weeks 8-10 at Pats, at Bills then at Eagles), but do see this team overcoming their offensive struggles and will be more competitive this season. This team needs to be be better against winning teams as they posted a 3-7 record against them last season and it won’t get any easier as they play 10 teams with winning records from a season ago. Their win total is set at O/U 9 wins which doesn’t offer up too much value for me as I believe taking them to win the AFC East at +300 offers better value. To win AFC East +300 (sportsbook)
ATS spot: “Play On” week 3 at home to Buffalo. First home game of the season for the Dolphins 3-1 ATS L4 at home to Buffalo and Buffalo coming off a divisional home to the Pats
Quick Bits:
Oakland Raiders: Oakland may still be another year away from challenging for a playoff spot, the club could finally start to enjoy some on field results this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jags finished strong last season going 4-1 ATS L5 games. Have a weak schedule (25th in the league) and play in a weak division (winnable games against Texans and Titans not Indy but could surprise) and I believe they will surprise many this season.
Cleveland Browns: Remains to be seen whether the players acquired this offseason and the QB situation (QB Josh McCown 1-10 last season as a starter in TB) can fix the issues the team was unable to overcome down the stretch last season. Browns strong defense and one of the league’s best OL should lead the Browns in some continued progression, but the unresolved situation under center could once again hold this team back.
Indianapolis Colts: Win their division with ease and are AFC title contenders.
Drock Predictions:
AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens
AFC South:
Indianapolis Colts
AFC West:
Denver Broncos
AFC East:
Miami Dolphins
NFC East:
Philadelphia Eagles
NFC South:
Atlanta Falcons
NFC West:
Seattle Seahawks
NFC North:
Green Bay Packers
AFC Champion:
Baltimore Ravens
NFC Champion:
Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl WINNER:
Baltimore Ravens
For a profitable season, it’s a must to DO YOUR HOMEWORK, if you put in the time, you will see results and if you follow my NFL profitable betting situations and avoid my 10 mistakes made by amateur gamblers then you will be on the winning side at the end of the season, GOOD LUCK to everyone this NFL betting season and remember on any given Sunday anything can happen, Smart money makes money
Derek
drocksportsbetting@gmail.com
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