Baseball’s regular season is different than all other sports because it allows you to apply some series dynamic strategies to your handicapping that are generally reserved for playoffs in NBA and NHL.  It’s those little things that can drastically help your bottom line in MLB betting.

1: Don’t be afraid of or shy away from underdogs on the money line

Baseball is one of those sports where there aren’t point spreads (if you ignore the -1.5) and the prices fluctuate in terms of who will win. That means that a 52.4% rate isn’t necessary to break even over the course of the year if you are consistently cashing underdogs. There is no quicker way to bleed away your bankroll than to take -250, -300 favorites in baseball and have them lose because you will have to win two to three bets just to get back that one loss. In fact, any time I see an underdog at +300 or greater it’s almost an automatic play for me (small) as the value is just too great in a one-game scenario. In fact, the +1.5 run line bet isn’t something I’ll ever use unless it’s on an underdog of +200 or more and the price on +1.5 is at or close to +100.

Playing underdogs is a huge part of my MLB betting success and it should be included in your strategy as well.

2: Zig-Zag total theory

Another basic starting point for baseball bettors and it calls for you to flip the total plays in Games 2, 3 and 4 of a series. Obviously you should take other factors into consideration (betting percentages, reverse line moves etc) when making a play like this, but if the first game of a series flies over the total, start your handicapping process for Game 2 with a lean on the under.

3: Series finales (Games 3 and 4) Total betting

This strategy follows a similar line to that of #2 above and it goes like this: If the first two games of a given series have the same result regarding the total (ie both games went over) go the other way for the series finale (ie under). Again there are many other factors in play here, but my example scenario works better than the other way because the series finale is on a getaway day for teams and guys are up at the plate swinging more freely than usual. Situations like that are great under bets.

4: Getaway afternoon games Under the total on Weekdays

Again, it’s not a hard and fast rule when looking at afternoon games on Wednesdays and Thursdays, but with travel likely ahead for both teams involved in these games, all involved are looking for a quicker contest. Obviously you can incorporate theory #3 and #4 together here for a strong play or a reason to stay away from an afternoon under.

If the first two games of the series went over the total and the finale is a weekday afternoon start time, I’m looking very hard on the under for that day. Conversely, daytime unders are a very well-known concept among handicappers and if the first two games of a series stayed under and the finale is a day game, it will be hard for me to not pull the trigger on the high side of the total. Because this strategy is so well known I tend to put less stock in it than the other’s I’ve mentioned here.

5: Don’t get hung up with the starting pitching matchups

Big name pitchers bring lofty prices as recreational bettors tend to think these guys don’t lose. Basing your MLB handicapping on the pitching matchup alone is going to hurt your bankroll in a hurry because there are so many more factors that decide a game. Aces do get lit up and have off days as well so don’t be afraid to go against some of these studs from time to time, the value will always be there.

6: If you do lean towards starting pitching matchups, look hard at First 5 Innings lines

After years of betting and following baseball I’ve come to the general conclusion that Closers Suck. There are some exceptions like the great Mariano Rivera and a few others, but go through any given season and watch how many bullpens blow leads and how many teams go through multiple closers in a season. There isn’t a worse feeling in baseball betting to have a team’s bullpen blow a bet for you when you had everything go your way for the first half of the game. That’s why you shouldn’t shy away from those 1H bets in baseball.

7: Make sure to check the weather and past hitting results for a team against the starting pitcher when breaking down a game

A great resource to have bookmarked in your browser is dailybaseballdata.com. This is a site I use daily to check which way the wind is blowing in a given stadium and past results for batter vs. pitcher matchups. When you see the majority of a teams lineup having great career numbers against a starter the light bulbs should go on regarding playing that team and the ‘over’ for the game. Again you must consider numerous other factors before confirming those plays, but having all that information at your disposal is an important part of being successful with MLB betting.

8: Sweeps happen, don’t simply take a team just because they are trying to avoid getting swept.

This is a common theory among recreational gamblers that MLB teams always show up when they are about to get swept. While you do see teams step up at times and avoid the broom, sweeps do happen and it’s important to pick your spots if you are deciding to go with the (presumably) worse team looking to avoid the sweep.