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About ATSskinner

Having been involved with sports betting for 7+ years now and working with some very successful handicappers along the way, I'm here at DRock Sports to provide you with successful sports betting information. With an emphasis on betting totals, I hope to help you all get on the winning side of the war against your bookie.

Tuesday June 3rd Betting Action

I started the week with a small losing day going 1-1 on my plays but my top play on the 'under' in the Padres never really having a chance. I'm still trying to recover from a horrible 7+ days in MLB but I'm confident I'll get back there as there are quite a few plays I like on tonight's MLB board. All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts "to win" on favorites and flat on underdogs Play of the Day in Bold NHL YTD: 9-12-2 (-$177) NBA YTD: 12-13-1 (-$187) MLB YTD: 45-52-6 (-$509) MLB Plays Toronto/Detroit Over 9 (-110) $220 to win $200 The Jays gave starter Drew Hutchinson a few extra days of rest prior to this start because they believe he was fatigued and his declining velocity proved their concerns. Hutchinson has been hit or miss for Toronto all year but I wouldn't want to throw him out there with regressing stuff against the #1 batting average team in the AL (Detroit) after the Tigers are looking to bust out after getting blanked in their last game. We've got a strong wind blowing out to left field tonight and given all the power and potential for HR's on both sides, this should be an old fashioned slugfest. Six of the last seven games between these two have gone over the total and Toronto is 7-1 O/U the last eight times they've been a road underdog. Be prepared for fireworks tonight LAA/Houston Over 8 (-114) $342 to win $300 C.J Wilson is out on the road again tonight and even though I got burned with the 'over' in his last road start, I couldn't get much help from the other side [...]

By |June 3rd, 2014 5:17pm|Free Picks, MLB Picks|0 Comments

Monday June 2nd Betting Action

It was a profitable night on Friday even though it was only a 2-2 night. My play of the day on the underdog Pirates came through as did the Giants against Wainwright. Miami and Seattle were losers for me and after a tough stretch of 10+ days I decided to get away from it all over the weekend and regroup today. It was great to see DRock carry the torch with a great weekend of plays for you guys and I'm looking to start this week off in similar fashion. All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts "to win" on favorites and flat on underdogs Play of the Day in Bold NHL YTD: 9-12-2 (-$177) NBA YTD: 12-13-1 (-$187) MLB YTD: 44-51-6 (-$443) MLB Plays KC Royals ML (+129) $200 to win $258 After getting shutdown by Buerhle and the Jays yesterday, KC is off to play their in-state rival Cardinals tonight and they catch the Red Birds on a bit of a slide. St Louis just failed an early season test against the best from the West (SF), losing three of four at home to San Francisco over the weekend. Other than the lone loss, San Fran's offense really did a number on the Cardinals pitching staff with 23 runs scored in the three wins. KC might be one of the weaker hitting squads, but they get the Cardinals weakest starter (Miller) and a tired bullpen tonight and could make this one ugly early. What makes matters worse for St Louis is the fact that they are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against a southpaw starter and that includes an 0-7 SU record when that lefty comes from an AL team. [...]

By |June 2nd, 2014 3:57pm|Free Picks, MLB Picks|0 Comments

MLB Betting Strategies: Flip Flopping in Double Headers

Double headers come up often enough during an MLB season that it's important to keep them on your radar. With teams giving guys the 1st or 2nd game off for rest, lineup announcements are important, but as a general rule this is a strategy I use for handicapping Game 2 of the twin bill. Strategy: Take the team on the ML who lost Game 1 of the double-header and flip flop with the total as well. It's not always this simple, but sweeping a double header is very tough in baseball and more often than not you'll see the two teams split the day. It's great when the Game 1 loser comes back as the underdog in Game 2 as the + money should add a few extra dollars to your bankroll. In terms of the total, the same logic applies so that if the first game went 'under' the total, take the second game 'over' and vice-versa. In the on-going war between hitters and pitchers, they are likely to split on the day as well. Sometimes the pitching matchup in the 2nd game will scare bettors away from backing an 'over' (if aces are on the hill for example), but studs do get hit hard too and I've used this strategy to cash numerous bets in my baseball betting career. Obviously you have to incorporate other factors like line movement, betting percentages and the like to these Game 2 plays, but if you go into double headers with the thought of avoiding making plays on Game 1 (unless there are factors mentioned above that warrant a play), and look for those flip flop scenarios in Game 2, your bankroll will thank you for it.

By |May 16th, 2014 2:56pm|Betting Strategy, MLB Strategy|0 Comments

MLB Betting Strategies: Handicapping Pitchers after a no-hitter

No-hitters are a rare accomplishment in MLB, but we do see a handful of them each season. With many bettors going by the "what have you done for me lately" thought process, they look to jump on these pitchers in their next start and expect them to dominate again. More often than not these pitchers/teams are heavy favorites with their stud on the hill and everyone goes to the betting window ready to lay the heavy juice. I am not one of those bettors as after heavily following baseball for 7+ years now, fading a pitcher after a no-no tends to work well. This strategy also applies to near no-hitters that were broken up late (8th/9th inning) as well as complete game shutouts for a pitcher. Strategy: Fade Teams with a Pitcher making his first start after throwing a no hitter/complete game shut out and take 'over' the total as well. In it's basic form this strategy has it's deepest roots in regression. You've just watched a guy mow down a team without allowing a run or a hit and all the media outlets and general baseball fans are singing this guy's praises. The pitcher performed at a peak level and everyone is expecting something similar from him in his next start. But I am the one that is expecting that pitcher to regress quickly back to their average form and that means a bad outing is on the horizon. MLB hitters are the best hitters in the world and after you get the best of them one day, regression to the means suggests that you'll struggle against them the next time you are out there. There have been nine no-hitters since the start of [...]

By |May 16th, 2014 2:13pm|Betting Strategy, MLB Strategy|0 Comments

Betting Strategies to Win Money Betting NBA Postseason

These are all great starting points when breaking down the daily NBA board and shouldn't only be used to make a bet, but ignoring these things can be deadly to your bankroll. 1: Zig-Zag Theory I talked about this briefly in my NHL Playoffs Strategy piece, but truth be told it work much better in the NBA. Basketball is a more fluid game than hockey in terms of points being scored and runs being made, so it's easier to get on a team that lost previously and expect them to bounce back. Home court advantage also tends to work better in the NBA playoffs so if you've got a home team desperate for a win and fits this theory (ie after a loss) it's a good time to get on them. There were three specific spots in Round 1 where I thought the zig-zag + home court desperation applied and you would have went 2-1 SU and ATS. Those games were Chicago (Game 5), Houston (Game 5) and Golden State (Game 6). 2: Beware of the 20+ point blowout - Take Teams ATS after losing by 20+ Playoffs are unique in that you really get a handle on what works against an opponent because you play them every time out there. But sometimes in this game, there will be a time when one team just owns the other on a given night and blows them out of the water. Once the losing team starts to see this game has gotten out of hand it's time to rest their guys and begin gearing up for the next game to try and get that win back. The amount of anger and motivation that losing team has in [...]

By |May 5th, 2014 4:37pm|Betting Strategy, NBA Strategy|0 Comments