NFL FREE PICK YTD 8-8 (50%) -$85

Kickoff 4:25pm EDT

GM #330 49ers +6.5 -107 (pinnacle) risking $107 to win $100

49ers team that has been better in their home games compared to away games this season.  On this field, San Francisco is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS while allowing only 15.8 points per game.  The Niners were able to hold Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona to less than 21 points each at Levi Stadium.  Bengals are off 2 divisional opponents and now travel to the west coast playing an non-conference foe (falls under Profitable Betting Situation #6).  A.J. McCarron make his first NFL start in place of Andy Dalton this week and is also another spot that I like to fade in a QB’s first road start of his career.  A.J has been in the media spotlight this week comparing himself to Tom Brady saying when he was drafted that they “play the game the same way”.   Cincy was in a very emotional game last week against the Steelers and they were fighting them on the field and in the media after that ugly home loss.  The fighting hasn’t stopped this week, as players are still jabbing at each other on social media.   I see this a tough spot for the Bengals to get up for to play cross country against a live dog on this slow grass field at Levi Stadium.  I believe too much emphasis is on AJ and his cocky attitude that he thinks he can be like Tom Brady and the public has bought into it.  I can not pass up these kind of points on home field where the 49ers have been playing hard.

Good luck to all today and enjoy the games!!

Derek

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