A tough 1-3 day for me last night as I’ve become too reliant on blindly taking my strategy-based plays and not using them as strong guidelines when breaking down a game. I’m still up on the year though and that’s all that matters, although I am anxious to get my percentage up around the 55% number by year’s end. Again it’s only MLB action for you tonight so let’s get right to it.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs.

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 75-79-9 (+$855)

MLB Plays

NYY/Toronto Under 9 (-108) $216 to win $200

Using my strategies as a guideline, we’ve seen the first two games of this series sail over the total and the Yankees are looking to get out of town and get some rest after tonight. Yankees starter Kuroda  is 10-26-2 O/U in his last 38 road starts and he’s also 5-14-1 O/U after only four days off between starts. He’s gone 4-21-1 in his lat 26 against a winning opponent and he’s also 5-12-3 O/U in his last 20 against an AL East rival. For whatever reason he knows how to shut down the hitters he sees the most and tonight will be no different.

On the other side, Hutchinson has shown a strong ability to bounce back after a rough outing and his last start was against these same Yankees. There is no doubt in my mind that he will have a better plan of attack tonight and being at home always helps. With a 3-8 O/U record after a full five days of rest and a 2-8 SU mark in his last 10 against a winning team, Hutchinson will be on top of his game tonight.

Chicago/Baltimore Over 9 (-113) $339 to win $300

We’ve seen the first two games of this series split in terms of Over/Unders, but if it weren’t for a walk-off three-run HR by Baltimore in Game 1, we’d have two unders so far in this series.

Chicago has been a great ‘over’ team all year thanks to their ability to hit well and not pitch well and that’s the type of game I expect from them tonight. Hector Noesi has a 5.51 ERA over his last three starts (21 hits allowed in 16.1 innings) and it’s not like his 5.34 ERA on the season is much better. He’s a guy that will never ‘wow’ you with his stuff and opposing hitters will key on his pitches and knock them into the gaps. The Sox are 3-0-1 O/U in Noesi’s last four starts as a dog in the +110 to +150 range and pitching in hitter friendly Camden Yards won’t help.

Ubaldo Jimenez gets the call for Baltimore tonight and he has struggled as well over his last few outings. Jimenez has a 5.79 ERA during that time and has watched opponents score 6.7 runs per game in those outings. He’s a fly ball pitcher that will give up  the long ball and Chicago’s lineup is full of guys who can take it yard.

Minnesota ML (+151) $200 to win $302

The Twins showed some resolve last night after getting down 5-0 in the first inning to the Angels. By the time LA was at bat again the game was tied, but Minnesota couldn’t get much else done the rest of the way. However, we’ve seen some pretty drastic early movement today coming Minnesota’s way after opening at +170 or higher and yet the majority of bets are backing the more popular Angels team.

Garrett Richards has been good for L.A this year but he’s still not worth this steep price in my opinion. He’s had a couple of outings this year where he’s absolutely gotten shelled so it can be hit or miss with this guy. I’m siding with the movement here and taking a shot with the hot hitting Twins looking to get the job done tonight.