I missed with my play of the day (Toronto/NYY Over) last night but it was still a profitable night as the over in Houston/Washington came through as did my play on Oakland ML. There are plenty of daytime ball games today so let’s get right to the picks.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 68-68-9 (+$1822)

MLB Plays

Houston Astros ML (+144) $300 to win $432

Houston has lost all three games with Washington this year but they showed some very positive signs late in last night’s loss as they tried to come back and win. The Astros aren’t the same pushovers they’ve been the last few years as they are finally taking some great steps forward into becoming a legitimate, competitive franchise again. Houston still won’t contend for the playoffs this season, but the influx of talented youth they’ve got in their lineup will only help them in years to come.

But what makes this play one I like tonight is the fact that Houston gets to face left-handed Gio Gonzalez tonight in his first start off the DL. As a team Houton hits nearly .40 points better (.267 to .227) and score 4.36 runs per game. The Astros don’t hit as many HR’s against southpaws (0.3) but that means they are getting it done by keeping the order moving and getting hits all over the field. They’ve already seen Gonzalez this year before he went on the DL and there is no way in my mind that Gio is worth this hefty price in his first start back. He has a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts before the injury and I don’t think he’s even close to the hefty favorite price he’s laying tonight.

LAA/Cleveland Over 8.5 (-107) $214 to win $200

It’s another C.J Wilson road start and you know what that means. Although I was burned by this play last time he started away from home, Wilson is still 28-5-3 O/U in his last 36 road starts. That number includes a 8-0 O/U run as a road favorite in the -110 to -150 range and a 20-4-2 O/U streak when the total is set at 7 to 8.5. L.AA is also 13-2-1 O/U in his last 16 as a road favorite of any price and with LA being 9-3 O/U in their last 12 road games overall, these are just numbers that are too strong to ignore.

Cleveland is 10-2 O/U in their last 12 at home against a winning team and has a 5-0 O/U record the last five times Justin Masterson has faced a winning squad. As a team, Cleveland is 11-4 O/U in their last 15 at home and 6-2 O/U the last eight times they’ve been a home underdog, so look for tonight’s game to have quite a few runs scored again.

Toronto/NYY Over 9 (+104) $200 to win $208

Going back to the well with this play tonight after the Jays bats remained ice cold last night. You have to give them some slack facing one of the best pitchers in the league in Tanaka, but this cold streak has gone on way too long if you are manager John Gibbons. Tonight the Jays get to face a rookie in Chase Whitley and while Whitley has been good, he doesn’t have nearly the stuff Tanaka deals.

New York gets to face a guy who they’ve seen plenty of throughout their careers in Mark Buehrle. Ichiro, Jeter, Teixeira, Roberts, Beltran, and Soriano all have at least 38 at-bats against Buehrle in their careers and only Beltran and Soriano have an average below .320 in those at bats. New York has been a much better team against lefties this year, scoring nearly a run more per game than they do against righties (4.69 vs 3.70) and with it expected to be a very warm, humid night in the Bronx, the ball should be flying out of this park with ease.