I’ve got some afternoon action going here, but there are also a couple of night games I really like. Just like the plays today, it’s mainly totals that have got my attention, so lets get right to the plays.

As always, all lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 92-96-12 (+$791) pending

MLB plays

KC/Tampa Bay Over 7 (+119) $300 to win $357

This play fits with my thinking today regarding totals flip-flopping. The two games so far have gone 0-1-1 O/U in this series with each team getting a W. Tonight, Yordano Ventura squares off against Alex Cobb and neither one of them has been great of late. Ventura has given up 19 hits in 19.1 innings of work over his last three starts and 3 runs/game have come across the plate because of it. That’s not exactly a high conversion rate for opponents against Ventura, but with the Rays playing some good baseball right now (won eight of 10), I’m expecting Tampa to cash in on their chances tonight.

What really makes this play a nice fit though is the fact that Laz Diaz is behind the plate. Diaz has seen an average of 8.9 runs per game this year and that’s good enough for a 12-4-2 O/U record this year. When you’ve got an umpire with a tight strikezone, a low total with + money odds and two teams that have yet to go over, it’s the perfect storm for betting this play.

Atlanta/NYM Over 7 (+100) $200 to win $200

We’ve got another “over” umpire in this game tonight as Sean Barber is behind the plate and he’s got an 11-4 O/U mark with the average combined runs coming in at 9.8.

Atlanta starter Ervin Santana has been great for ‘over’ bettors all season with his 9-5-2 O/U mark and while two of those five ‘unders’ have come in his last three starts, 102 hits allowed in 103 innings isn’t conducive to keeping teams off the scoreboard. Atlanta is 7-2 O/U in Santana’s last nine road starts and that includes a 6-1 O/U in his last seven as a road favorite.

With New York riding a 6-1 O/U run in their last seven at home and a 4-1 O/U mark in Gee’s last five as a home dog, I think we see at least eight runs from these two teams tonight.