It was a strong 3-1-1 night for my plays on Tuesday, but I’m not resting on my laurels after one decent day. There are three afternoon games starting between 3 and 4 PM EST today and there are a few plays in those games that I believe you should have on your card. There will be a couple other plays tonight, but I thought that I’d get out an early piece for those of you looking for some afternoon action.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 92-96-12 (+$791)

MLB Plays

San Diego/Colorado Over 11.5 (+113) $200 to win $226

Toronto/LAA Over 8 (+104) $200 to win $208

I’m grouping these two games together as both fit our betting strategy of taking the opposite total after the first two games of the series have had the same result. It conflicts with the afternoon getaway day theory, but with my buddy C.J Wilson on the hill in L.A and a home plate umpire that has a 60% rate cashing ‘over’ tickets this year I’ve got no problem backing that play. 70% of the action is coming in on the low side of this total and with the Jays bats starting to come alive last night, I’m confident they’ll do their part in producing runs.

Colorado is another game that has 70%+ of bettors backing the low side of this total after two straight unders and a weak hitting Padres team. But Jair Jurrjens was absolutely lit up in his first start of the year last time out and I doubt he finds his best stuff a few days later. The Rockies are 4-0-2 O/U in their last six games against a southpaw and have a 22-10-1 O/U mark in their last 33 as a favorite. The fact that this total opened up as high as it did at 11 after two straight low-scoring games seems a little crazy to most bettors, but it’s that high for a reason and I’m siding with the craziness.

Miami/Arizona Over 8 (+111) $200 to win $222

No surprise here as we’ve got yet another afternoon game with 70% + of the action on the low side of the total. After last night’s 2-1 Marlins win it’s no surprise to see bettors coming back for more on the under. But we’ve got another home plate up who’s cashed the ‘over’ 60% of the time this year (9-6 O/U) and has a runs per game average of 9.7. Eovaldi and Collmenter are nothing special, and with Miami being 6-1-1 O/U in Eovaldi’s last eight against a losing team, 19-9 O/U in their last 28 on the road, and 6-1 O/U int heir last seven against a righty, I expect Miami to hit today.

Arizona has a 10-4-1 O/U when Collmenter’s coming off only four days of rest and they are 14-6-1 O/U when he’s on the hill and the DBacks lost their last game. I’m going against the public yet again with this play here and am looking for it to cash.