Gotta love those 3-0 days like I had last night, especially when two of them were dogs at +140 and +165. Those three wins help my second half get going on the right track and I’m looking to continue that today with one strong play for you.
All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with ‘bet amounts’ to win on favorites and flat on underdogs
Play of the Day in Bold
MLB Pre-All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)
MLB Post-All Star Break: 7-4 (+$1079)
CFL YTD: 2-3 (+$88)
MLB plays
San Francisco/Philadelphia Under 7.5 (-107) $321 to win $300
This is not a series finale game as these two meet up for Game 4 tomorrow afternoon, but that doesn’t mean that after two straight ‘overs’ in this series that I’m not willing to back an under tonight.
For one, we’ve got a great ‘under’ umpire in Vic Carapazza behind the dish and his 60% ‘under’ rate (8-12 O/U). That’s a good percentage for any guy, but the fact that he only sees 3.5 runs scored by the home team and 3.4 scored by the road team means that he’s used to seeing low totals and still cashing on the low side. Carapazza’s on a 2-5 O/U run in his last seven behind the plate and should have an expanded zone for the pitchers to work with tonight.
Speaking of those pitchers, it’s A.J Burnett for the Phillies and Madison Bumgarner for the Giants. Burnett has a 2-5 O/U run going in his last seven at home and is 1-5 O/U the last six times he’s pitched in a Game 3. Add in a 1-4 O/U run as a home dog and a 0-4 O/U run against NL West teams and Burnett should be bringing his best stuff tonight.
Bumgarner is in a similar boat as he’s 1-4-1 O/U the last six times he’s been a road fav of -150 or less and 5-13-2 O/U at any stadium as a favorite in that price range. Philly doesn’t have a great team average against lefties (.237) so Bumgarner should be able to go deep in this game.
Overall, there are just too many factors lining up for me tonight on the low side of this total, and that’s why I’m willing to step out and make this my top play.
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