It was a profitable 2-1 day for my picks last night as the ‘under’ finally came in on a Stanley Cup Finals game with the Kings grabbing a stranglehold on the series. L.A is one win away from their second Stanley Cup in three years and they look poised to do it quickly. My baseball selections went 1-1 but it was my play of the day on ‘over’ 9.5 runs in Cleveland/Texas that had cashed by the 3rd inning. Easy winners like that are always great but it’s not always about what you’ve done in this business it’s about what you are doing today. I’m looking to provide more winners for you tonight with MLB action and the NBA Finals playing it’s third game.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

NBA YTD: 12-13-1 (-$187)

NHL YTD: 10-13-3 (-$217)

MLB YTD: 55-60-8 (+$350)

MLB Plays

Chicago Cubs ML (+143) $200 to win $286

The Cubs dropped Game 1 of this series 6-2 yesterday and are looking to even it up tonight. They send young lefty Travis Wood to the hill and in a rare anomaly of the season, this will only be the 7th time all year Pittsburgh has face a southpaw starter. The Pirates have done alright against the previous six, but nothing to warrant the heavy chalk they are laying tonight.

Conversely, Chicago has pounded left-handed pitching all year (.270 team average) and are 4-1 SU in their last five on the road against southpaw starters. Chicago is also 4-1 SU in Wood’s last five starts overall and I like their chances to even things up with the Bucco’s tonight.

Detroit/Chicago Over 8.5 (-105) $210 to win $200

Atlanta/Colorado Over 10 (-104) $312 to win $300

These two plays are all about some favorable home plate umpires we’ve got calling balls and strikes tonight in two games that should see plenty of runs.

I’ll start with the Tigers/White Sox game and umpire Laz Diaz behind the dish. Seven of Diaz’s 10 starts behind home plate have gone over the total this season and that includes a 3-0-1 O/U Mark in his last four games behind the dish. With Justin Verlander being a shell of his former self out there this season and Detroit going 5-0 O/U in his last five starts overall, the White Sox will be able to get to the former Cy Young winner early. Detroit is 12-3-1 O/U after their last 1 losses and 6-1-1 O/U when Verlander’s only had four days off so this game should go way over the 8.5 total.

Then we have the Atlanta/Colorado game and numerous factors lining up here.

First off, we’ve got only 22% of bettors (as I write this) taking the high side of this “10” total yet the price on it has gone from being +money (as high as +108 early am) to it’s current price at -104. It’s hard for oddsmakers to come off a number like 10 so that move in price is a significant move.

Secondly, we’ve got Chris Conroy behind the plate tonight and he’s got a 7-1 O/U mark behind the plate this year. The last four times he’s called balls and strikes and Colorado was involved the ‘over’ is a perfect 4-0. Even after last night’s ‘under’ the over is 8-3-1 the last 12 times these two franchises have met at Coors Field and the Rockies are 11-3-2 O/U in Nicasio’s last 16 starts as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range.

Finally, as a team the Rockies are 35-15-1 O/U the last 51 times as a home underdog in that price range and Colorado does hit left-handers better than righties. Some may be scared to go over a high total like this, but I think we could see this number passed by the 6th inning with an average wind (10 mph) blowing out to left-center field helping balls leave the yard.