This week started off much better than last week ended as my plays went 2-1 last night for a +339 day. The only loss was with the Pirates who had numerous innings with runners on 1st and 3rd with one out or less and they just couldn’t manage to plate anyone. That was all the opening the Cardinals would need as they walked off with a two-run HR in the 9th. No need to rehash what could have been though as the Mets came through for me in extra innings to cash my top play. It’s on to today’s card and it’s a big one:

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs.

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 89-95-11 (+$209)

MLB plays

Cleveland ML (+136) $200 to win $272

Cleveland’s in tough against Tanaka and the Yankees tonight, but I’m not one who’s hesitant to fade ‘aces’ when the price is right and tonight the price is right on the Indians.

The perception about Tanaka is that he’s unbeatable and that’s why we see about 90% of the bettors already backing him and the Yanks tonight. But New York is actually 1-2 SU in his last three starts overall as he’s come back down to earth a bit with a 3.52 ERA in those starts, seeing 4.7 runs/game being scored against  him. Cleveland is 5-1 SU in their last six as a home underdog and I like Bauer’s chances to match Tanaka pitch for pitch. Give me the +136 odds on Cleveland.

Texas ML (-145) $290 to win $200

The Rangers were blasted by the Astros last night, but they should be the ones knocking the ball all around the yard against Brad Peacock tonight. Houston is 0-4 SU in Peacock’s last four starts on the road and they are 1-5 SU when coming off a win. They are also 1-6 SU in their last seven games against a righty and with home plate umpire Vic Carapazza having a 13-4 SU record for home teams, I’m laying the juice with the Rangers tonight.

Pittsburgh/St Louis Over 7.5 (-133) $399 to win $300

Miami/Arizona Under 9 (-105) $315 to win $300

We’ve got a couple of total plays here that have very favorable umpire situations. In the case of Pittsburgh/St Louis we have home plate umpire in Jerry West who has a 14-3 O/U record this year, thanks to 10.4 runs scored per game. The pitching matchup is one is conducive to runs being scored and with all the runners left on base in last night’s series opener, tonight’s the night we see many of those guys cross the plate.

In the case of Miami/Arizona, home plate umpire Bob Davidson has seen only 6.2 runs scored per game behind the dish and that’s good enough for a 5-11 O/U mark. Davidson is part of the reason we’ve seen this total move down from 9.5 to 9 with the majority on the ‘over’ and I have no problem following a move like that.

***Update**** If you use another book, and can’t get 7.5 on the Pirates total, it’s still a very strong play at 8 (-105/-110)

San Francisco/Oakland Over 7 (+109) $200 to win $218

Sonny Gray is always going to get plenty of ‘under’ money when he’s on the hill, but he’s not going to get much help from home plate umpire Angel Hernandez tonight. Hernandez has a 9-7 O/U record this year, not overwhelming by any means, but with 8.5 runs scored per game – including at least 4/game from both the visitors and home teams – tonight’s battle of the Bay is going to be higher scoring. I have no problem going against the 90+% of bettors already betting the low side of this total.