A 1-1 night with my selections yesterday cost me a bit of juice but that’s alright as I can always live with those days. You can’t always win in this business so if you can maximize your good days and minimize your bad ones, you are on the right track and a 1-1 day with minimal juice lost is an outcome I can move on rather easily from.

It’s Canada Day up here though and the Jays are playing an afternoon game for the festivities, but it’s a few of the games that go later tonight that I’ve got my eye on. I’m going to be passing over the Giants game although it’s Tim Lincecum’s next start after his no-hitter, but that’s something to keep in mind should you be looking to get down on that game.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 80-84-10 (+$760)

MLB Plays

Oakland/Detroit Over 9.5 (-107) $214 to win $200

Detroit won 5-4 on a walk-off grand slam last night to actually cost Drock a winner on his ‘under’ 9 runs in that game. Tonight should be a different story with a rookie on the hill for Oakland making his third start and Rick Porcello on the hill. Neither of these guys can be trusted to hold down two very good offenses and with Oakland being 4-0-2 O/U in their last six on the road against a righty and Detroit being 7-2 O/U after a win, we will see these two teams combine for 10+ runs tonight.

Philadelphia/Miami Over 7.5 (+101) $300 to win $303

The Phillies and Marlins don’t quite have the offensive firepower that the A’s and Tigers do, but they do have a favorable line move for this play tonight. This number has come off the key number of 7 despite over 80% of bets being on the low side of this total. A move like that off any number is significant, but when it comes on one of the two key numbers in baseball (with 9 being the other), it’s something I take notice of.

Tonight’s game is also a rematch of a 3-2 Miami win in Philadelphia last week when both A.J Burnett and Henderson Alvarez had very strong outings. But with so much recent familiarity and these two guys struggling to put a string of quality starts together, I’m riding with the high side of this total.

Chicago/Boston Over 9.5 (+100) $300 to win $300

This is another game that has seen some significant movement in the same way that the Phillies/Marlins game has. Boston and Chicago have moved up off that key number of 9 with 85% of the action so far coming in on the under and that is quite surprising to me.

Cubs starter Edwin Jackson has been one of the best ‘over’ pitchers in the entire MLB this season and he’s got plenty of history with Red Sox hitters from his time in the AL. The Cubs have gone 6-1-2 O/U in Jackson’s last nine starts as a road underdog and they are 8-1 O/U against a team that scored two or less in their last game. Boston’s lineup was a little drained after their weekend series with the Yankees wrapped up with a Sunday Night Baseball appearance and they were not their patient selves at the plate last night. That approach will definitely change tonight as we see both teams go off against some very poor pitching.