It was a 1-2 day on Monday with my free plays, thankfully that one win came with the Angels as my top play. You never like losing days, but when you can minimize the loss with a big play cashing it gives you the energy to come back the next day even better. That’s what I’m hoping my plays do for you (and us) tonight as we’ve got a full MLB card to pick from tonight with reverse line movement being the theme of the day.
All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs
Play of the Day in Bold
MLB Pre-All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)
MLB Post-All Star Break: 16-15 (+$1174)
CFL YTD: 5-5 (+$352)
MLB plays
Philadelphia ML (+101) $300 to win $303
Many of you know I’ve been a huge proponent of Houston this year, but after a good run for the Astros last week it feels like too many people are jumping on board now. Houston took two of three from the A’s and three of four from the Jays last week and after a day off they are getting about 60% of the action as a road favorite. Think about that for a second: Houston is a road favorite and they are getting the money.
The problem is, for as bad as Kyle Kendrick has been for the Phillies, the line is moving in his direction and given he and his teammates are at home, I like the way this game is setting up for them. Sure,they were shutout in back-to-back losses against the Nats this weekend, but a day off for them had to help regroup as they play out the string of this season. The Phillies are 43-17 the past few years after a road trip of 7+ days and Houston is 0-4 SU the last four times they’ve been a road favorite. Need I say anymore?
Boston ML (+134) $200 to win $268
It’s a rematch of last year’s World Series and with this season already looking like a lost cause after their fire sale at the deadline, the Red Sox have a chance to get up for meaningful game/series and prove they can still beat some of the better teams in the league. New slugger Allen Craig is back in a comfortable place after getting traded last week and the Sox aren’t short on hitters after they reloaded their offensive lineup for next year. The Cards are coming off a tough series against the team they are trying to catch in the NL Central (Milwaukee) and with a 1-5 SU record in Lance Lynn’s last six interleague starts and a 0-4 SU run in series openers going, the Cards will drop tonight’s game. Compare those numbers with Boston’s 20-8 SU mark in their last 28 interleague games on the road, the +134 price tag, and the reverse line movement in their favor (90%+ on STL) and I can’t pass up this play tonight.
Atlanta ML (+147) $200 to win $294
The Braves are another team trying to stay on the fringe of playoff contention as they head to the Pacific Northwest for a series against the Mariners. Seattle’s trying to stay in contention as well and they’ve got their ace King Felix on the hill, but the line is moving against them as well with the majority of bettors (75%) backing the King.
It’s not too often that Atlanta makes a trip out this way, but they are 4-1 SU in their last five at Safeco Field and Alex Wood has been spectacular in recent starts. Wood has been hurt by some tough luck in those outings (1-2 SU record), but he should have success against a weaker Mariners lineup tonight.
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