It was a dead even night for me yesterday as my selections went 1-1-1 and I did not win or lose a dollar. Nelson Cruz’s grand slam in the late innings helped me get that push on my top play with Baltimore Over 9, while the Yanks and Jays stayed under the total and the Twins didn’t show up as a big dog. It’s a small card in MLB today with a couple of afternoon tilts so lets get right to the plays.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs.

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 76-80-10 (+$855)

Atlanta/Houston Over 8 (-103) $309 to win $300

We’ve got an afternoon contest for the series finale between these two as Houston hopes to avoid the sweep. But it’s this total I’m playing after two straight ‘unders’ in the series. There are a few factors that favor this ‘over’ play as well.

First off, we’ve got lefty Mike Minor going for the Braves and Houston is a much better hitting team against southpaws. They have a .258 team average against lefties this season (compared to .220 vs. righties) and Minor has had a rough go of it lately. Atlanta is 3-0 SU in Minor’s last three starts but the starter has never factored into the decision thanks to a 7.31 ERA during that time. He’s given up 29 hits in 16 innings of work (5.7 allowed/game) over his last three starts and Houston should be able to jump all over him early. Houston starter Jarred Cosart is no ace either with 4.1 runs allowed/game this year and numerous games where he’s been knocked out of the game early.

Secondly, we’ve got a a great ‘over’ umpire behind the dish in John Tumpane. Tumpane’s last six games behind the plate have all gone over their respective totals and that includes a 4-1-1 O/U mark in his last six interleague contests. With Houston being 6-2-1 O/U in their last nine at home against a southpaw and Atlanta 6-0 O/U when Minor starts a Game 3, don’t be surprised to see these two teams combine for 10+ runs.

Miami/Philadelphia Over 7 (-121) $242 to win $200

If you didn’t look deeper into the numbers you wouldn’t know that Cole Hamels has been a great ‘over’ pitcher this season. Phillies games have gone 7-2-3 O/U with Hamels on the hill this year and that run will continue tonight. The Marlins are a team that have seen the lefty plenty of times throughout their NL East rivalry and with a 6-2-1 O/U mark after their last nine wins, Miami will be able to put up some runs. The Marlins are also 4-0 O/U in their last four on the road against a southpaw and 18-7-7 O/U in their last 32 at any venue against a lefty.

Philly should have success against Koehler too as he’s not exactly a stud out there and he’s allowed 4.7/game over his last three starts. Miami has a 9-6 O/U record in Koehler’s 15 starts this season and tonight will push that record to double digits.

Colorado ML (+182) $200 to win $364

This is the 2nd time in a week these two teams have played after Milwaukee went out west and swept the Rockies last week. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2 of that series (9-4 Milwaukee win) and I’m always a big component of revenge. That game was Friedrich’s first MLB start and the nerves showed, but he should be much more comfortable tonight with it being his 2nd time out on a major league mound and facing hitter’s he’s seen before.  The Brewers are coming off a win against Stephen Strasburg and the Nats yesterday and are primed for a let-down game tonight against a team they swept last week and feel like they just need to show up to get the W.