Another rough day for my plays yesterday as the losses continue to mount. An 0-2 day was the end result but at least with both plays being underdogs I didn’t get buried by juice. It’s onward and upward though after a busy trade deadline day in MLB as I’ve got a couple of baseball plays for you tonight, along with thoughts on the CFL game. Since we’ve been struggling the past week with our premium plays, I’m putting them all in today’s write up for free as $300 plays. You can fade or follow them. Let’s hope we cash a few of them tonight.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB Pre-All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB Post-All Star Break: 12-11 (+$813)

CFL YTD: 4-3 (+$588)

MLB plays

Seattle/Cleveland Over 8.5 (-105) $315 to win $300

Nine straight overs now for the Mariners but they got that boost from management today as they went out and got some offensive help in the form of Austin Jackson and Chris Denorfia. Neither will be playing tonight (Jackson was pulled int he 6th inning of Detroit’s game this afternoon), but knowing management is behind you to win now is a jolt of energy through the locker room. The last time Seattle did go ‘over’ a total was when Chris Young started so we’ve got that going for us too.

Cleveland’s Zach McAllister is on the hill and he’s got an 8-2-1 O/U run going in his last 11 starts as a home favorite of -150 or less. As a team the Indians are 9-3 O/U as a home favorite in that price range and they’ve gone 10-4 O/U in their last 14 at home against a righty. After dealing with Felix Hernandez last night, (and Kluber for Seattle) any new face on the mound is a welcome site for both offenses and with a 11-4-1 O/U run going the last 16 times these two have played in Cleveland, there will be some runs scored.

Finally, this play also fits our series finale flip flop total strategy with both  games staying under the total so far. We’ve got a home plate ump in Gabe Morales who has a 13-8 O/U record on the year, but things have picked up over his last 10 games behind the dish with an 8-2 O/U mark. All these numbers have me believing tonight is the night we finally see a high-scoring game for the Mariners.

Houston ML (+139) $300 to win $417

Houston just took two of three from Oakland this week and now host the Jays for a four-game set this weekend. The Astros traded away tonight’s starter Cosart and will be sending out Jake Buchanan for his second start of the year after he got rocked the first time back in June. With Buchanan getting a spot start and the Jays having won 5 in a row, it’s no wonder the Jays line is ballooning with 80%+ on their side.

But this play is all about fading Toronto after two very emotional series’ against division rivals. Toronto won in Yankee Stadium for the first time in 17 tries en route to taking two of three from New York and followed it up with a sweep of the Red Sox. Those games were absolutely critical to Toronto’s playoff chances this year and with them sitting in the 2nd wildcard spot right now and still trying to catch Baltimore for the division, the time is now for Toronto.

However, it’s near impossible for the Jays to “get up” for a game – or even series – with the cellar-dwelling Astros. With a huge three-game set with Baltimore on deck, the Jays will be looking right past Houston and on to that series with the O’s. That’s not a team I want to be backing as a road favorite at any price, let alone against a team that’s swinging the bats well and just took two of three from the best team in the majors. Toronto will come out flat tonight as they’ll think they can just show up and escape with a win.

Miami ML (+101) $200 to win $202

The Reds are a mess right now and are tanking fast down the standings. They’ve got nobody in their lineup right now that can consistently produce and even with Cueto on the hill I was surprised to see this line open as low as it did. Since the opener, this line has move hard in favor of Miami despite getting the minority of the action, and with the Marlins playing the better baseball right now I’ve got to side with the line move and the hotter team.

CFL Plays

Hamilton -4 (-112) $336 to win $300 

It’s the second home game for the Tiger Cats tonight and after getting their first win last week, they will be out to prove they are still the great team that made it to the Grey Cup last year. The line has been moving in their favor the past 24 hours as they are the favorites as a 1-3 SU team vs. a 4-1 SU team from Winnipeg. The fact that they are favored and it’s moved their way tells me the home side is the one to back tonight.

Winnipeg is also coming off an upset against BC last week as 8.5-point dogs. The Blue Bombers defense was impressive that day but like I wrote about in my preview, it was the ultimate flat spot for the Lions and they got caught. Tonight it’s the Bombers in a tough, letdown spot and with an offense that struggles to move the ball and cash in TD’s, I just don’t think they’ll be able to keep this one within 7 points.

*note – I’m seeing a lot of -4.5’s across the board and still this play at that number.