It was a 2-3 day with my picks yesterday, but I only suffered minimal damage thanks to my top play on the over in KC/Tampa being nearly +120. Although that wasn’t a side play, in baseball, even the worst teams win 40% of their games so reaching that much maligned 55% mark isn’t always a good thing. Taking underdogs or -150 or less favorites is the way to go in my opinion because you can be under 50% like I am and still be up money. That’s the power of the + money and no spreads in baseball, so if you are looking to back the heavy -175 and up favorites you won’t find any of those selections here at D Rock Sports. Losing those heavy chalk plays can eat at your roll in a hurry and the higher your average odds are the higher your winning percentage has to be just to break even. This is a topic that D Rock can touch on later on this week as we head into a slow time with the All-Star game.

For me, it’s on to today’s short card on getaway day in MLB with teams wrapping up series, and/or getting ready for their final series before the All-Star break.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 94-99-12 (+$756)

MLB Plays

Oakland/San Francisco Over 7 (-101) $303 to win $300

The Giants were glad their was a scenery change in this four-game home-and-home series as they managed to beat the A’s 5-2. I’m not looking at the side for the series finale tonight though as we’ve got another favorable umpire situation for the total.

Adrian Johnson is behind the dish today and he’s got an 11-5 O/U record this year with the average score being 5.3-4.4 for the road teams. Each of the past two meetings between these Bay area rivals have seen seven runs scored and depending on when you bet on Tuesday, you are either 1-0-1 or 0-0-2 with ‘over’ bets. If you are the latter, I have no problem making a case for this being the 4th game of a series without an ‘over’ bet hitting which helps this play today.

Finally, San Fran is 6-1 O/U in Hudson’s last seven starts overall, 7-1 O/U in their last eight as an underdog of  +110 and +150 and the A’s are 5-2-1 O/U in Kazmir’s last eight starts on the road. Those numbers, combined with Johnson behind the dish are more than enough for me to get down on this play rather big.

Texas ML (+108) $200 to win $216

Texas has had a horrible season, but it doesn’t get much worse than getting swept by the Astros at home. The Rangers are a lost team looking for a direction and the All-Star break can’t get here soon enough. But a four-game set against the Angels to close out the first half of the season could be exactly what the Rangers need to get back on track before the wholesale selling occurs at the trade deadline.

It helps that the Rangers get to face the ‘gas can’ known as Hector Santiago tonight. Santiago has a 0-7 SU record on the year and L.A is 3-8 SU in his 11 starts overall. This is a guy that I was against in his last outing against Houston and the Astors held a 5-2 lead in the 7th before the wheels fell off. Santiago allowed nearly 5 runs/game on the year and Texas is a much more consistent offensive team than Houston.

This game will get ugly in a hurry for Santiago and the Angels as Texas tries to make a statement to their division rivals that they may be down this year, but they aren’t going to get run over.

San Diego ML (+236) $200 to win $472, San Diego +1.5  (+103) $200 to win $206 and Over 6 (-118) $236 to win $200

Clayton Kershaw has pitched four straight shutouts as the Dodgers have won his last seven starts. Kershaw hasn’t finished every one of those games, but with L.A having five shutouts in his last nine contests, it’s tough to argue with how dominant he’s been. He faces the worst offensive team in the majors tonight for the first time, and it’s no surprise to see bettors flocking to the Dodgers tonight and driving this price up. In fact, I believe the closer you wait until game time the higher this line on the Padres will go.

I’ll begin with the total though as despite all those shutouts in his last four outings, he is 1-2-1 O/U and has a 4-5-1 O/U record in his last 10 starts overall. That’s thanks to some tremendous run support in those games as L.A has scored 5+ for him in six of those 10 games. The Dodgers offense alone might be enough to cash this game over the total, but I’m thinking Kershaw finally gives up a few runs tonight.

I say that because there couldn’t be a more perfect storm for me to take a shot with the Padres ML. We’ve got the best pitcher in the game coming off four straight shutouts, 36 straight scoreless innings and facing the worst hitting team in the majors. When people see all those factors coming together they think, “well this should be an easy win for Kershaw and the Dodgers tonight as there is NO WAY the Padres will be able score anything on him, let alone beat L.A.”

You know I love to go against the norm and tonight’s game presents a great opportunity to do so. I know everyone is looking at this game and expecting an easy win for L.A, but the Dodgers are actually 1-4 SU in Kershaw’s last five starts against the Padres and that includes a 4-1 O/U record in his last five at home vs. San Diego and last five overall against them too. For whatever reason, San Diego finds a way to get it done against Kershaw and I can’t pass up a chance to cash in on a +230 dog. Remember what I said in the opening, even the worst MLB teams win 40% of the time and tonight’s one of those nights I’m hoping the Padres can come through for me.