A solid 3-1 night for me on Friday, although my first foray into CFL betting this year didn’t go as planned. It’s the final weekend of action in MLB before the All-Star break and that means you won’t see me on too many ‘overs’ the rest of the weekend. After a long grinding season so far, guys are already looking ahead to this brief vacation with their families. That means patience at the plate tends to go out the window.

Finally, it’s the 3rd place game in the World Cup today and although I won’t include a pick on the game in this article, you just have to read this piece  to know what I’m on for that contest.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB YTD: 98-102-13 (+$1126)

CFL YTD: 0-1 (-200)

MLB Plays

Chicago/Cleveland Under 8.5 (+110) $200 to win $220

This is the first game off the board today after the Indians won 7-4 as heavy favorites last night. Cleveland recalled Zach McAllister from the minors to make this start and they are hoping his time down there helped him fix some mechanical issues and regain his confidence. McAllister is looking to reward management’s decision to bring him back with a strong performance today and against the free-swinging White Sox he’s got a great opportunity to do so.

Chicago starter Scott Carroll was great in his last start, shutting out the Red Sox through 6.2 innings of work in an eventual 4-0 win. Carroll has been up and down all year, but he’s got a much better ERA during the day (1.62) and his numbers are better on the road too. He started here in Cleveland back in early may and gave up two runs on five hits in six innings of work. That game finished 2-0 for the Tribe, but I’m not interested in who’s going to win this one. With last night’s game being the first ‘over’ between these two teams in the last six meetings and an umpire in Hal Gibson III behind the plate with a 2-6-1 O/U record in his last nine, I’m going against the majority with this under play.

Milwaukee ML (+121) $200 to win $242

The Brewers slide continues after they coughed up a big lead over the Cardinals yesterday and eventually lost 7-6. The Brewers lead in the NL Central has now shrunk to one game over the Cardinals and for as well as Milwaukee has played in the first half of the season, it would be a huge disappointment if they got to the All-Star break in 2nd place. A win tonight would ensure that doesn’t happen but they’ve got to go through Adam Wainwright to do it.

Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in their last five games as a home underdog and with everyone jumping off the Brewers bandwagon right now, I have no problem staying the course and taking the Brewers as a home dog today.

Washington/Philly Over 7 (-102) $204 to win $200

A big name pitching matchup headlines this game tonight as Stephen Strasburg and Cole Hamels square off. Now, I know I mentioned that I wouldn’t be on too many overs this weekend, but with these two high-profile pitchers going and the ‘under’ getting plenty of attention (85%+), I had to jump on the high side of this total.

I say that because despite their large contracts and big profiles, both Strasburg and Hamels have been great ‘over’ bets all year. Strasburg has a 13-5-1 O/U record in his 19 starts this year and Hamels isn’t too far behind at 8-4-3 O/U in his 15 starts. Good run support, a couple shaky innings, and low totals are all factors for why many of their starts are going ‘over’ and I think we will see another game hit at least eight runs tonight.

L.A Dodgers ML (-106) $318 to win $300

I was a day too early with my Padres bet on Thursday night as the Friars came back to win Game 2 of this series last night. But San Diego is still a bad team that struggles to hit the ball and I’m surprised to see so many bettors (70%) backing them tonight.

Now I know many of those bets have been placed because of the pitching matchup with Ian Kennedy going against a returning Paul Malholm. Kennedy has been one of San Diego’s best pitchers all year, but even with Malholm on the hill, you are giving me the much better team at basically even odds to win at home, when the minority is on them. Sign me up for the Dodgers tonight.