Yesterday’s plays went 1-2, but it was my third straight loss on my Play of the Day that really stung. Those are the plays I really want to see cash in for you guys and after a strong run (8-0-1), losing three straight sucks. Thankfully, we’ve built up a bit of a cushion with our bankroll with those plays to withstand a few losing days, but I don’t plan on losing my top play tonight.
With the NHL and NBA officially in off-season mode now, it’s only MLB action that’s available to us so let’s get right to it.
All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs
Play of the Day in Bold
NBA YTD: 12-13-1 (-$187)
NHL YTD: 10-13-3 (-$217)
MLB YTD: 63-67-8 (+$835)
MLB plays
Philadelphia ML (+118) $200 to win $236
Cleveland ML (-110) $330 to win $300
Fading teams after they played in the national spotlight of Sunday Night Baseball is something I love to do and both these games fit that bill tonight.
Philadelphia is in Atlanta to take on the Braves and Cole Hamels continues to get + money prices. He was once a dominant pitcher in the NL and has slowly been rounding back into that form this year. He can shut down a Braves lineup that has struggled against southpaws all season and with only 30% of the bets coming in on the Phillies and the line moving in their favor, this is a play you have to jump on.
We’ve had similar line movement for the Indians as they are in the 35% range of backers yet they’ve flip-flopped from being a small home dog to a home favorite. They are 7-0 SU in their last seven at home against a right-handed starter and L.A’s bullpen got plenty of work in over the weekend. Jered Weaver is still a guy I’m looking to fade more often than not at this stage of his career and with L.A being 2-7 SU in their last nine on the road, tonight’s game sets up very well for a Cleveland victory.
Kansas City ML (+127) $200 to win $254
Justin Verlander is in the same class of over-priced, fadable pitchers that I have Weaver in and with some reverse line movement working in KC’s favor tonight, I can’t pass them up at this +127 price. The Royals come into this series with the Tigers only 1.5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central and are playing some very good baseball right now having won seven straight games. KC is finally getting some offense from nearly everyone in their order and after getting swept at home by the Tigers the last time they faced Detroit, it’s time for some revenge tonight.
NYM/STL Over 8 (-117) $234 to win $200
A spot start for middle reliever Carlos Martinez tonight of the Cardinals as St Louis sits down Adam Wainwright for some rest on his sore elbow. Martinez has a 4.67 ERA in 34.2 innings of work coming out of the bullpen this year and he’s likely on a very low pitch count that could see him leave by the 4th inning. Spot starts are great for a team looking to give a starter some rest, but they are also great for bettors looking to cash in on an ‘over’ bet. Tonight should be no different as the Cardinals bats started to come alive in their final two games with Washington over the weekend and eight of their last 11 home games with the Mets have gone over the number.
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