It was a 2-3 day with my picks yesterday, but I only suffered minimal damage thanks to my top play on the over in KC/Tampa being nearly +120. Although that wasn't a side play, in baseball, even the worst teams win 40% of their games so reaching that much maligned 55% mark isn't always a good thing. Taking underdogs or -150 or less favorites is the way to go in my opinion because you can be under 50% like I am and still be up money. That's the power of the + money and no spreads in baseball, so if you are looking to back the heavy -175 and up favorites you won't find any of those selections here at D Rock Sports. Losing those heavy chalk plays can eat at your roll in a hurry and the higher your average odds are the higher your winning percentage has to be just to break even. This is a topic that D Rock can touch on later on this week as we head into a slow time with the All-Star game. For me, it's on to today's short card on getaway day in MLB with teams wrapping up series, and/or getting ready for their final series before the All-Star break. All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts "to win" on favorites and flat on underdogs Play of the Day in Bold MLB YTD: 94-99-12 (+$756) MLB Plays Oakland/San Francisco Over 7 (-101) $303 to win $300 The Giants were glad their was a scenery change in this four-game home-and-home series as they managed to beat the A's 5-2. I'm not looking at the side for the series finale tonight though as we've got another favorable [...]

I've got some afternoon action going here, but there are also a couple of night games I really like. Just like the plays today, it's mainly totals that have got my attention, so lets get right to the plays. As always, all lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts "to win" on favorites and flat on underdogs Play of the Day in Bold MLB YTD: 92-96-12 (+$791) pending MLB plays KC/Tampa Bay Over 7 (+119) $300 to win $357 This play fits with my thinking today regarding totals flip-flopping. The two games so far have gone 0-1-1 O/U in this series with each team getting a W. Tonight, Yordano Ventura squares off against Alex Cobb and neither one of them has been great of late. Ventura has given up 19 hits in 19.1 innings of work over his last three starts and 3 runs/game have come across the plate because of it. That's not exactly a high conversion rate for opponents against Ventura, but with the Rays playing some good baseball right now (won eight of 10), I'm expecting Tampa to cash in on their chances tonight. What really makes this play a nice fit though is the fact that Laz Diaz is behind the plate. Diaz has seen an average of 8.9 runs per game this year and that's good enough for a 12-4-2 O/U record this year. When you've got an umpire with a tight strikezone, a low total with + money odds and two teams that have yet to go over, it's the perfect storm for betting this play. Atlanta/NYM Over 7 (+100) $200 to win $200 We've got another "over" umpire in this game tonight as Sean Barber is behind [...]

It was a strong 3-1-1 night for my plays on Tuesday, but I'm not resting on my laurels after one decent day. There are three afternoon games starting between 3 and 4 PM EST today and there are a few plays in those games that I believe you should have on your card. There will be a couple other plays tonight, but I thought that I'd get out an early piece for those of you looking for some afternoon action. All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts "to win" on favorites and flat on underdogs Play of the Day in Bold MLB YTD: 92-96-12 (+$791) MLB Plays San Diego/Colorado Over 11.5 (+113) $200 to win $226 Toronto/LAA Over 8 (+104) $200 to win $208 I'm grouping these two games together as both fit our betting strategy of taking the opposite total after the first two games of the series have had the same result. It conflicts with the afternoon getaway day theory, but with my buddy C.J Wilson on the hill in L.A and a home plate umpire that has a 60% rate cashing 'over' tickets this year I've got no problem backing that play. 70% of the action is coming in on the low side of this total and with the Jays bats starting to come alive last night, I'm confident they'll do their part in producing runs. Colorado is another game that has 70%+ of bettors backing the low side of this total after two straight unders and a weak hitting Padres team. But Jair Jurrjens was absolutely lit up in his first start of the year last time out and I doubt he finds his best stuff a few days later. [...]

This week started off much better than last week ended as my plays went 2-1 last night for a +339 day. The only loss was with the Pirates who had numerous innings with runners on 1st and 3rd with one out or less and they just couldn't manage to plate anyone. That was all the opening the Cardinals would need as they walked off with a two-run HR in the 9th. No need to rehash what could have been though as the Mets came through for me in extra innings to cash my top play. It's on to today's card and it's a big one: All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts "to win" on favorites and flat on underdogs. Play of the Day in Bold MLB YTD: 89-95-11 (+$209) MLB plays Cleveland ML (+136) $200 to win $272 Cleveland's in tough against Tanaka and the Yankees tonight, but I'm not one who's hesitant to fade 'aces' when the price is right and tonight the price is right on the Indians. The perception about Tanaka is that he's unbeatable and that's why we see about 90% of the bettors already backing him and the Yanks tonight. But New York is actually 1-2 SU in his last three starts overall as he's come back down to earth a bit with a 3.52 ERA in those starts, seeing 4.7 runs/game being scored against  him. Cleveland is 5-1 SU in their last six as a home underdog and I like Bauer's chances to match Tanaka pitch for pitch. Give me the +136 odds on Cleveland. Texas ML (-145) $290 to win $200 The Rangers were blasted by the Astros last night, but they should be the [...]

Not much to say after a brutal 0-3 day on Sunday, just have to put my head down and get back to the grind. Treading lightly in terms of dollar amounts tonight to try and get back in the winners circle. All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts "to win" on favorites and flat on underdogs Play of the Day in Bold MLB YTD: 87-94-11 (-$130) MLB Plays NY Mets ML (+113) $300 to win $339 Revenge time for New York after they were swept in Atlanta last week. Minor and Matzuzaka faced off in Game 2 of that series and while neither starter went more than five innings, it was the Braves who did enough damage early on to win 5-4. Not a single run was scored after the top of the 5th in that game so the bullpens did a great job, but this time aorund it's going to be New York who comes out on top. The Braves just had a long nine-game winning streak snapped yesterday against the Diamondbacks and I love to fade a team in a spot like this after a long winning streak has been snapped. NY Yankees/Cleveland  Under 9 (-107) $214 to win $200 Not a lot of love coming for spot starter Shane Greene tonight as he struggled in his lone relief appearance this year for New York. But he's got the advantage of no Indians player having faced him before and that should be good enough to get through Cleveland's order the first few times. Justin Masterson hasn't been up to par for Cleveland, but this is a guy who was a former ace for this team and can mow down any lineup on [...]