I was 1-3 last night with my plays but thankfully that lone winner was my big one that was never in doubt on the under in the Wizards/Bulls game. Baseball was frustrating as there were a few other plays that I left off my board that turned out to be good (Oakland being one) but that’s neither here nor there at this point. This site is all about providing winners for you guys out there and I’m on a mission to do a better job of that.

Tonight’s card is a lively one with three Game 7’s in the NHL, three NBA playoff contests and a full slate of MLB games. This is who I’m on.

All lines taken from Carbon Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

NHL YTD: 2-3-1 (-$14)

MLB YTD: 3-7-1 (-$766)

NBA YTD: 5-5-1 (+$158)

NBA Plays:

Houston Rockets -5 (-110) $330 to win $300

Portland won both games in Houston to start the series and I have a tough time believing they’ll make it three in a row. Historically the numbers are astronomically against the Blazers to do so. A team that is up 3-1 in an NBA series and playing Game 5 on the road (Portland) is 17-48 SU in Game 5 in all rounds of the NBA Playoffs and only 2-16 SU when it happens in the first round. Washington’s win in Chicago last night was the second time the road team got the W and I doubt it happens twice in 24 hours after only happening once before in the entire history of the league.

Winning SU and covering this five-point spread are two different tasks, but Houston is in desperation mode and after numerous OT games in this series that have seen the Rockets come out on the short end more often than not, Dwight Howard, James Harden and the rest of the Rockets will be out to make a statement with a dominant win to force this series back to Portland for Game 6.

NHL Plays:

Philadelphia/NYR Under 5 (-105) $210 to win $200

Minnesota/Colorado Under 5 (-105) $210 to win $200

LA/San Jose Under 5 (+100) $200 to win $200

Scoring may be drastically up in these NHL playoffs, but I’m grouping all three of these Game 7 plays together because I put a lot of stock in historical trends. Game 7’s are a time when teams and players lay it all on the line to keep the puck out of the net and score that one goal needed to advance and I don’t see that changing tonight. Referees do not want to be the ones to ultimately decide this game with a questionable call so the whistles are left in their pockets for the most part, meaning it’s up to the guys on the ice in 5-on-5 play to determine a winner.

Secondly, over the last three NHL playoff seasons there have been 16 series that went to Game 7 and the results of the final game support these plays. 13 of the 16 Game 7’s played over that time have finished with five goals or less for a 3-9-4 O/U record. Over the past two seasons (nine Game 7’s) we’ve only seen one game finish with more than five goals scored and it was that thrilling Round 1 finale between Toronto and Boston last year. All other eight games had five or less goals scored (1-5-3 O/U) and all five of those unders finished 2-1. One of those 2-1 games last year was between two teams that are playing tonight (L.A/SJ) so hopefully by grouping all three of these plays together I can go 2-1 ATS at worst.