The MLB playoffs are 24 hours away with the AL Wildcard game getting things started. Oakland managed to stave off a monumental 2nd half collapse by clinching their spot in this game on the final day of play, but they’ve now got to head to Kansas City for the right to take on the Angels in the divisional round. KC is back in the playoffs for the first time as a franchise since 1985 and you’ve got to wonder if this young team might get swallowed up by the big stage.

Over in the National League, the Giants are back in the playoffs this year as they head up to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates on Wednesday. Pittsburgh used home field advantage to their favor last season with a 6-2 win over the Reds in the wildcard game and with the valuable post-season experience this franchise gained last year and the Giants recent history (2X World Series Champs since 2010), this should be a great do-or-die game.

The current wildcard format of a one-game playoff has only been in use for two seasons, but the visitors in those games are 3-1 SU. That number includes a 2-0 SU record for road teams in the AL’s version of the game which is definitely good news for Oakland. Last year’s Pirates team was the only home team to move on in this format and they are hoping to do the same thing this season.

As far as favorites vs. underdogs go, we’ve got a 2-2 SU record for both as the underdogs went a perfect 2-0 SU in 2012 during the wildcard games while the favorites bounced back with a 2-0 SU mark themselves last season. Both of those underdog wins came as +155 dogs or greater with Baltimore cashing as +210 dogs against Texas in 2012. Last year the odds were much closer with Pittsburgh being -135 home favorites and Tampa being -111 road favorites en route to the victory. This year’s games resemble last year’s contests as we’ve got the Royals coming in as small home favorites vs. Oakland and the Giants as small road favorites vs. Pittsburgh.

Regarding the totals, the AL Wildcard game has a 0-2 O/U record while the NL is 2-0 O/U. Those results are a bit surprising given the AL’s the one with the extra hitter in the lineup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see those results flip this year.

So let’s get to the AL line for Tuesday:

Oakland (-102) vs. KC (-106); Total set at 6.5 (Over +104)

I’ll begin in the AL as we’ve got a great pitching matchup between Jon Lester and James Shields. Both guys have plenty of post season experience on their resumes as both have pitched in previous World Series. There aren’t too many guys other than these two who you’d rather have on the hill in a do-or-die scenario and this should be a great game.

KC won the season series 5-2 SU against the A’s this year and James Shields accounted for tow of those five victories. He won four of his last five starts for the Royals down the stretch and has been their most consistent pitcher all season. He’ll be relied upon to get this game rolling smoothly for KC as their young, inexperienced offense gets their feet wet early on, but if the A’s get to him early, things could get ugly for the home side. In his two wins vs. Oakland (7-3, 4-2) Shields pitched six and eight innings respectively and should be able to go deep again. However, I’m not sure I have complete faith in this offense in a high-pressure spot like this given their inexperience and unless the Royals can play with an early lead, I don’t think they’ll be able to win this one coming from behind.

It gets worse for the Royals when you discover that both of Oakland’s wins against them this year came with Jon Lester on the hill. Lester got plenty of run support in those contests (11-3 and 8-3 wins), but it was needed as he didn’t exactly have his best stuff in those games. Lester never went longer than 6.2 innings in those starts and allowed 15 combined hits, so it’s not like this Royals team can’t hit him here. But if Lester gets the run support he got in those previous two meetings, it’ll be the A’s that move on to face their rivals from L.A.

Personally, I believe the best bet here is on the high side of the total. Yes, I know that the AL Wildcard game is 0-2 O/U in it’s brief history, but given the past meetings between these two clubs with these two pitchers on the hill (3-1 O/U in games started by Lester or Shields this season), I believe we see some runs. I already suspect that the majority will see these two big name starters and expect a pitcher’s duel, but as you know I’ve got no problem going against the grain as I think we see a relatively high-scoring game with one of these two teams pulling it out late.

Take the Over 6.5 runs at +104.