Couldn’t manage to cash with yesterday’s free play on the ‘over’ in the Astros/Rangers game as this week as been a grind, but there are four football games on tap tonight and that’s where my focus has shifted too. So without further ado, lets get to tonight’s NFL free picks and college football free pick.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 45-43 (+$2359)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-6 ATS (+$229) 

NFL YTD: 4-6 ATS (-$557)

NFL free pick

NYG/Washington Under 45 (-105) $315 to win $300

After losing the ‘under’ on the last NFL prime time game (Bears/Jets), I’m going back to the well with that train of thought tonight to take another low-side of a total.

So far this total has been moving back and forth throughout the week as 75%+ of bets have come in on the high side. That’s not too surprising given that the Giants and Redskins put up 30+ points last week and casual bettors generally subscribe to the “what have you done for me lately” idea.  However, this total has been on it’s way down all morning and that move has confirmed by week-long suspicion that it would.

It’s a short week for both teams which is typically good news for ‘under’ bettors, and the Giants are 1-5 O/U the last six times they’ve been on TNF. New York is also 3-12 O/U after covering the spread in their last game and has a 5-14 O/U run going in their last 19 on the road. Five of the past seven meetings between these two here in Washington have stayed under the total and a few of those are included in the 0-5 O/U record the last five times these two teams have met.

Meanwhile, Washington is 1-5 O/U in their last six division games with last week’s tilt against the Eagles being the lone over, and they’ve got a 1-6 O/U mark in their last seven at home against a losing road team. All in all, I’m going against the grain once again tonight as I think this game will be a race to 20 points with the ultimate winner being the only one to crack 20+. Casual bettors have cashed in with all these NFL stand alone prime time games continuing to go ‘over’, but it’s only a matter of time before that starts to flip around. I’m betting that it starts tonight with this Giants/Redskins tilt.

College Football free pick

Texas Tech/Oklahoma State Under 68 (-106) $212 to win $200

This is another total that’s been dropping all morning/afternoon with a heavy majority on the high side of things. The Big 12 is known for explosive offenses and high-scoring shootouts and points will be scored tonight, but I still think this number is a touch too high.

Texas Tech has got a new defensive coordinator for this one after their old one quickly resigned following their 49-28 loss to Arkansas last time out. DC Matt Wallerstedt was caught under the influence of drugs on campus (according to reports) and that’s why he resigned, but it’s not like the Red Raiders were having much success with him calling plays. Texas Tech has allowed an average of 36.7 points a game so far this season (112th in country) and his replacement will definitely be out to make a strong impression tonight. The Red Raiders are 4-9 O/U following a double-digit home loss and if they want any chance of pulling off the upset, their defense will have to step up and play well.

Oklahoma State has yet to go ‘under’ a total in their three games this season but that will change tonight. QB Daxx Garman has stepped in for the injured J.W Walsh and while he’s been alright, he hasn’t faced any real competition. He doesn’t have the decision-making prowess that Walsh has and with OK State’s last four Big 12 games going 0-3-1 O/U, I doubt we see that ultra-explosive offense from the Cowboys tonight.

I’m siding with the situation, line movement and minority here as this game tops out in the low-60’s.