Tough night all-around as my free plays managed to earn me a bit of dough with a split, but watching the Jets offense was frustrating beyond belief and they cost me my final NFL premium of Week 3. A 3-3 ATS week with NFL premium doesn’t hurt as much when Week 2 finished with a 5-1 ATS mark, but I’ve already begun breaking down next week’s games as I look to get back in the win column during Week 4. Tonight the only sport in town is MLB, so lets get right to the free selections.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 44-42 (+$2359)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-6 ATS (+$229) 

NFL YTD: 4-6 ATS (-$557)

MLB plays

Seattle/Toronto Over 7 (+100) $300 to win $300

Toronto brought out their heavy bats to put on a show last night in the series opener, jumping out to a huge lead early and never looking back. It won’t be nearly as easy against King Felix tonight, but Hernandez has had his share of rough outings in Rogers Centre during his career and I’m leaning on tonight being another one of those nights.

In Hernandez’s last six starts @ Toronto, he’s got a 4-0 win, an 8-3 loss, a 1-0 loss, a 5-4 win, a 2-1 win and an 8-0 loss. This is a place where he’s always struggled to find a consistent groove to latch on to and with the Jays looking to play spoiler this week, the pressure of the playoff chase will likely have King Felix pressing a bit more than normal. Hernandez knows his bullpen is taxed after three games in a row where they’ve been called into duty by the 5th inning and they’ve been getting hit just as hard as the starters. Hernandez is a guy that will likely give that bullpen a bit of a rest tonight going at least 6+, but that doesn’t mean runs won’t be scored.

The Mariners are 8-2 O/U in Hernandez’s last 10 starts against AL East opponents and they’ve got a 5-0 O/U run going when he’s favored on the road in the -150 to -200 range. As a team, Seattle is 7-3-1 O/U in their last 11 as a road favorite and four of Hernandez’s last five starts against the Jays have gone over the total. Numbers like that suggest we see the hot bats from both teams continue ripping the ball, especially if R.A Dickey hands a few of those knuckleballs.

Toronto is 5-1 O/U in their last six at home, 40-11-3 O/U the last 54 times they’ve been a home dog in the +150 to +200 range, and 8-3 O/U in Dickey’s last 11 starts overall – which includes a 4-0 O/U run at home. With big names like this on the hill everyone expects a pitching duel here (90% on the under), but both teams have very tired bullpens right now and are strung out to the max. If/when either one of these starters gets into some early trouble, crooked numbers will be put up, and with a low total like 7, getting a single crooked number up on the scoreboard may be all we’ll need to cash on this minority play.