A tough split with my free plays yesterday as I got burned again by that ‘over’ in the Indians/Astros game. All seven meetings between those two teams went under the total this year and that’s quite a rarity. It’s on to tonight’s free plays though as I try to head into the weekend on a good note.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 43-42 (+$2059)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-5 ATS (+$529)

NFL YTD: 3-4 ATS (-$333)

NCAAF Plays

UConn/South Florida Over 43.5 (+100) $300 to win $300

With both of these teams losing by double digits last week it’s tough to pick a winner here, although it is a good revenge spot for Connecticut. The Huskies lost 13-10 at home to South Florida last year pushing the underdog’s record to 4-0-1 ATS the last five times these two have met. If this line gets up to +3 for UConn I can tell you right now I’ll be on them plus the points as I believe they’ve got a great shot at winning this game outright.

I say that because although the Huskies lost by 38-21 to Boise State last week, the final margin was only that big because of UConn’s turnover problems. They nearly matched Boise State yard for yard that day (292 to 290) and as long as they take care of the ball tonight they should have no problem moving it and scoring on this South Florida defense.

The Bulls gave up 49 points in the first three quarters last week to NC State as the Wolfpack ran all over them to the tune of 315 yards. South Florida has allowed at least 24 points against in all three of their games so far this year as they seemingly can’t stop anyone and that bodes well for this play on the high-side of the total tonight.

This is the first road game for UConn this season, but they are on a 4-1 O/U run on the road right now and have shown me some good things on offense so far this year (aside from the turnovers). With everyone looking at the past history between these two and seeing scores of 13-10, 13-6, 16-10 and 19-16 the last four years, it’s no surprise to see this number drop like it has, but this year’s teams are very different than in the past. I don’t believe the opener (46) was that far off for a prime time game like this given how poorly each defense has played this year and with both offenses prone to turning it over, we should see some short field opportunities for both sides tonight. I would prefer to get 43 rather than 43.5 so shop around, but I still think we see both sides end up with 24+ tonight as this one sails over.