It was a solid 2-0 day for me on the diamond with my free picks on Tuesday with the Cubs winning in a route and the Dodgers and Rockies combining for another high-scoring affair. Last night we also saw both East divisions get clinched as the Orioles and Nationals punched their ticket to the playoffs. Fading a team (in any sport) after they clinched a division is a tried and true betting strategy I’ve used for years but the lines on Toronto and Atlanta have gotten away from us a bit. I still like both of those teams in that spot tonight if you are looking to add some plays to your card, but I’m going elsewhere on tonight’s MLB board with my official free picks.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 42-39 (+$2683)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-5 ATS (+$529)

NFL YTD: 3-4 ATS (-$333)

MLB free plays

Miami/NYM Under 6.5 (+108) $200 to win $216

Cleveland/Houston Over 8 (+115) $300 to win $316

I’ve grouped these plays together as both fit the system of playing Game 3’s/series finales on the other side of the total if the first two games in the series had the same result. Miami and the Mets have gone ‘over’ in both of their games so far as the Marlins get ready to head home, while Cleveland and Houston have played two low-scoring games but have a Game 4 on tap tomorrow. I’m always a little hesitant to apply this system to a Game 3 when there is still a Game 4, but after going through the numbers, trends and seeing the +115 value on the high side of the total I couldn’t turn it down.

I’ll begin with the Marlins game as I’ve watched this line all morning and found something interesting when comparing it to another similar one. The Nats/Braves total was another one to open up at 6.5 today and has seen 85%+ of the action come in on the high side. Odds makers were inclined to move that number up to ‘7’ and attach a plus-money price tag on it, bumping it up to that key number. However, the same hasn’t been done for the Marlins total with 80+ of the action on the ‘over’, rather they’ve just attached more juice to the over 6.5. That is a telling sign to me that the odds makers do not want to go to that key ‘7’ number on this game and although I’d rather get the ‘7’ here, I don’t mind going under the 6.5 at plus money.

New York is 1-10 O/U in Dillon Gee’s last 11 starts as a home favorite and they have a 1-5-1 O/U run going with him on the hill against an NL East rival. The Mets are also 7-20-2 O/U in his last 29 home starts and have a 2-6 O/U run going as a team when they are a home favorite of  -150 or less. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 1-4 O/U after their last five losses, 0-4 O/U the last four times Alvarez has been an underdog and 2-5-1 O/U after scoring two runs or less in their last outing. You can try and wait to see if this number does hit 7, but I’m going to take the plus money now and possibly double up on the bet if it does reach that key number.

Regarding the Astros game, we’ve got over 90% of bettors backing the low-side of this total and like the Mets contest, only juice has been added to the popular side. We’ve got an ump behind the dish in Paul Nauert who’s got a 15-10 O/U record this season as his last three starts behind the dish have all gone ‘over.’ Those games had totals of 8,7, and 8 and finished with 12, 14 and 9 runs scored. But what may be more telling is the fact that there were 5, 8 and 9 walks issued in those contests and walks are always the catalyst to a crooked number being put up on the scoreboard.

Houston’s Brett Oberholtzer has an 8.40 ERA over his last three starts with an average of 9 runs/game being scored on Houston in those outings. Houston is 11-5 O/U in their last 16 as a home underdog and that number goes to 8-3 O/U when they are home dogs of +150 or less. Houston is a very streak hitting club and if they are the beneficiaries of a few walks early, those bats could catch fire tonight. In a spoiler role I look for the Astros to rely on their offense to earn at least a series tie with a Cleveland team that is desperate for every win they can get right now.

Cleveland should have success against the struggling Oberholtzer as we should see our first high-scoring game between these two this season.