After a great weekend in football, it was tough to start out this week with an 0-fer as the Eagles and Colts provided the high-scoring shootout everyone was looking for and I should have just stuck to my guns about fading the Jays the rest of the way. Every Toronto loss pushes the Jays further on the brink of elimination and it’s only a matter of time before that becomes official.

There’s only MLB action tonight and that’s where my free plays are coming from tonight. Don’t forget to check out the premium picks page  as I’ve already sent out three premium MLB plays out to subscribers for tonight. On to the free plays.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 40-39 (+$2183)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-5 ATS (+$529)

NFL YTD: 3-4 ATS (-$333)

MLB plays

Chicago Cubs ML (-106) $212 to win $200

Tough to ignore the line movement in this one as the Cubs have flipped over to being the favorite against Johnny Cueto and the Reds. Cueto is clearly the #1 guy in Cincinnati and while this line move could be an attempt by bigger betters to scalp both sides at an underdog price (play Cubs earlier, Reds later), I have no problem backing the home team here.

For one, Chicago is hitting the ball quite well right now and did beat Cueto and the Reds 3-0 at the end of August. That was the last time Cueto lost as he’s won three straight starts since then and gone deep in all of those outings. However, the Reds are 7-25 SU in their last 32 on the road and that includes a 4-22 SU run as road dogs. They are a team that had high hopes entering the season but injuries and poor play have caused them to give up on 2014. Good teams that have clearly packed it in for September are not ones I’m looking to back and that’s precisely the case with this Reds team.

Instead, we’ve got a Cubs team who isn’t necessarily good, but they weren’t expected to be as their very young roster has taken some lumps this year. These young guys on Chicago are hungry to go out there and perform well so they can increase their odds of being on the roster next season and with a 7-3 SU run at home going right now, I like their chances tonight.

LAD/Colorado Over 10.5 (-109) $327 to win $300

We had 14 runs scored last night in Game 1 of this series in a Dodgers route and I’m expecting more of the same tonight. It might not be another easy win for L.A, but runs will come in bunches and we should see some crooked numbers from both sides tonight.

Dan Haren’s last three starts against Colorado have all ended poorly (0-3 SU) and he hasn’t gone longer than 5.1 innings in his last four starts against the Rockies. But it’s those last three starts I want to focus on as Haren (and his bullpen relief) have allowed 8, 7, and 8 runs in those three games. Colorado may be in the basement of the NL West, but they can still hit the ball and score (especially at home) as I believe Haren will be in for another rough ride tonight. The Dodgers are 6-0 O/U the last six time’s Haren’s been a favorite of -150 or less and as a team they are 12-3-1 O/U when coming off a win. If L.A wants to clinch a series victory here they’ll have to support Haren with plenty of runs and with 17 and 11 runs scored in two of their last three games, I like L.A’s chances of bringing out the bats again.

Colorado will have to help out given this high total, but given their past success against Haren I think it’s a good bet that they score 5+ runs. The Rockies are 4-1-1 O/U in their last six as a home underdog, so expect a lot of fire works today at hitter friendly Coors Field.