It was a strong weekend overall for us at D Rock Sports as I managed to go 5-3 ATS with my college football premiums and continued that momentum rolling with a 5-1 ATS day in the NFL on Sunday. Overall, my free plays went 3-3 on Sat/Sun and as we get into the final NFL game of Week 2 tonight, I’m looking to finish on an even better note. Baseball makes up the majority of my free play card tonight with the pennant races heating up, but I do have a MNF play for you all too.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 40-38 (+$2383)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-5 ATS (+$529)

NFL YTD: 3-3 ATS (-$15)

NFL play

Philly/Indy Under 53 (-106) $318 to win $300

Everyone’s expecting a shootout at Lucas Oil Stadium tonight with over 80% of bettors playing the high side of this high total. We’ve got two great offenses involved, so it’s no wonder everyone is expecting plenty of points, but as I’ve said repeatedly in the NFL, it’s generally best to be in the minority.

Indy is looking to run the ball more after only 54 yards on the ground last week against the Broncos, although they did have to abandon it a bit with a 24-7 halftime deficit to overcome. However, the more the Colts run the ball and move the chains, the longer Chip Kelly’s ultra-fast Eagles offense has to sit there on the sidelines and stew. The Colts are 5-14 O/U when coming off a SU loss and despite their reputation of being one of the league’s best offenses, they are on a 7-15 O/U run in their last 22 at home.

Philly’s blur offense isn’t always able to go as fast on the road because the hostile, noisy environment makes communication tough. Philly doesn’t want to find themselves with a double digit halftime deficit again this week (down 17-0 vs. Jax last week) and they are coming in with the mindset of trying to keep Andrew Luck and company off the field for as long as possible. The Eagles are 13-30 O/U after scoring 30+ points and 1-4 O/U after winning by 14+ points.

With bettors trying to salvage whatever they can from their Week 2 bets and looking for a shootout, I’m going the other way and expecting this game to top out at 48 or 49 points.

MLB plays

Toronto ML (+107) $200 to win $214

If you’ve been reading my breakdowns of Jays games over the past month or so you’ll know that I’ve almost always gone against them as their playoff hopes hang on by a thread. However, I can’t help but back them in this spot tonight as they need every win they can get against the Orioles this week.

For one, Baltimore was the Sunday Night Baseball winner and when those teams don’t have Monday off they typically end up on my ‘fade’ list the next game. I actually believe the O’s are peaking at the WRONG time right now because I don’t think this high level of play can be sustained for a long period of time and they might hit a wall come playoffs. But, I’m focused on tonight and I’m just not sure the O’s will have enough left in the tank tonight after an emotional, walk-off filled series with the Yankees.

Secondly, Toronto switched up their rotation over the weekend so that Marcus Stroman could face Baltimore for the 1st time this year. I’ve constantly said that the first time a pitcher faces a team gives said pitcher a distinct advantage and Stroman has some nasty stuff when he’s on. Toronto is 7-3 SU in Stroman’s last 10 starts overall and that includes a 5-1 SU run against AL East rivals. If that nasty curveball Stroman has starts dancing in and out of the strikezone, the O’s hitters will be in for a long night. The Jays are also 6-1 SU in their last seven as an underdog and with hitters like Encarnacion and Lind starting to find their stroke again, Toronto has the fire power to keep up with the O’s should this game turn into an AL East slugfest.