It was not a good start to the NFL season for me but results like that and my own personal lack of excitement/energy while watching some early games confirmed to me that I much prefer college football (betting, watching, researching) than the pros. Going forward you’ll see way more CFB plays from me than NFL and although that may upset some of you, remember, you don’t get extra money for having winning bets in the NFL over MLB, or CFB, or Aussie Rules football for that matter. Money plays no favorites, and a winning bet is a winning bet no matter the sport so stick to your strengths and minimize your weaknesses and your bankroll will grow.
That being said, I’ll still have many NFL plays for you the rest of the season and just like tonight’s two free NFL plays, almost all of them will heavily based on fading the majority. In my opinion that’s the only way to consistently beat the NFL as odds makers rake in hundreds of millions of dollars from bettors each NFL season from people that ‘believe’ they know the game, study rosters and handicap based only from what they see on the field. Those are all important factors when breaking down any specific game, but the odds makers know and have seen all that too and have incorporated that into the line. If all that has been accounted for and these sports books are still raking in the dough, what has to change for you to get similar results? Well, simply put, you take the side the sports books are “looking” for after 70$% or higher of the bets have come the other way. It worked yesterday with Atlanta, Miami, Cleveland, and Buffalo all covering the number with New Orleans, New England, Pittsburgh and Chicago getting pounded by everyone out there. It’s just something to keep in mind going forward.
Now that my mini-rant is over, let’s get to the free plays for tonight’s MNF and MLB action. Don’t forget to sign up for my premium play service as I’ve got four premium MLB plays going tonight for subscribers.
All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs
Play of the Day in Bold
Free Play Records
MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)
MLB Post All Star Break: 37-34 (+$2245)
CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)
NCCAF YTD: 6-3 ATS (+$656)
NFL YTD: 0-2 ATS (-$509)
NFL free plays
NYG/Detroit Under 45 (-103) $206 to win $200
San Diego/Arizona Under 46 (-110) $220 to win $200
It’s the first edition of MNF football this year and with the annual opening week double header it should come as no surprise that both ‘overs’ are getting pounded by bettors everywhere. Nothing like coming home from work and cheering for plenty of points in these football games tonight is the common mindset, but have you noticed that the Giants total has actually been dropping all morning (was as high as 47 this am) and the low side of the Chargers total has the -110 juice attached to it when even wagers at Pinnacle are listed as -105 apiece? Both of these plays fit into my thinking from my opening few paragraphs in this piece as I’ll side with the books here and root for a low scoring, boring game on both accounts. San Diego and Arizona both have tremendous defensive units and there are plenty of questions on offense in New York and Detroit with each team having a new OC (Giants) or entire coaching regime (Detroit). We’ve already seen the ‘unders’ go 8-6 in Week 1 and I believe we will have two more on our hands tonight.
MLB free play
Baltimore/Boston Over 9 (+113) $300 to win $339
Another day that I’m surprised to see so much love for an ‘under’ in a Baltimore game as their bats woke up late in their series finale with Tampa yesterday and should carry that over to tonight’s game with Boston. Th e O’s have a 4-1 O/U record in their last five games @ Fenway and are on an 8-3 O/U run in series openers. They’ve got the AL East basically wrapped up with a 9.5-game lead, but piling on a bad Red Sox team with an inconsistent starter tonight (Joe Kelly) will help Baltimore finish things off sooner than later.
Boston’s bats will need to help us out with this play as well after R.A Dickey’s knuckleball baffled them all afternoon yesterday. The Sox are on a 4-1 O/U run themselves in series openers and have a 4-1 O/U mark in their last five at home against a right-handed starter. They are also 4-1 O/U after their last five defeats and having beaten Miguel Gonzalez already this year, I’m expecting fireworks from both offenses in this one.
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