No need to write an intro or list my records with this piece as I’ll take care of all the accounting with tomorrow’s free play piece with so many games currently going on right now. My early preview can be found here if you are looking for those numbers, but I’m just going to get right to tonight’s free plays.
All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs
Play of the Day in Bold
NCAAF Plays
Texas -1 (-106) $318 to win $300
We’ve seen a huge swing in this line over the week once it was announced that Texas QB David Ash would be out as everyone starting flocking to the BYU side. Combine that loss with the fact that everyone remembers BYU running all over this Longhorns defense a year ago to the tune of 550 rushing yards and bettors are having no problem laying the points with the road team now.
Yet, despite the QB change, Texas is at home this time around and that will help their young QB get settled in a hurry. Also, this Longhorns defense is a year older (and wiser) and has not forgotten about how they were demolished in this game a year ago. The entire defensive unit will be out for blood in this one after last year’s embarrassment. UT held North Texas to 94 total yards last week en rout to the 38-7 win and the only score North Texas got was on a fumble recovery in the end zone. This defense was out to make a statement heading into this BYU game and they definitely impressed me with that performance.
But this is the game that unit was looking to get too as I know Taysom Hill and company won’t be running wild tonight. If the Longhorns want to remain ranked in the Top 25 they need to prove they can win at home against a quality opponent and that will happen tonight. BYU is 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and 2-6 ATS after a win of 20 or more points, so look for the Longhorns to get their revenge tonight with an outright victory.
North Carolina -16 (-105) $210 to win $200
There’s not a whole lot I like more when betting college football than fading a publicly backed underdog and watching the line actually move in the favorite’s direction. That’s what we’ve got in this SD State/UNC game tonight and although the Tar Heels defense didn’t look spectacular last week in a blow out win, the offense put up 56 points and moved the ball with ease. San Diego State’s defense is a much tougher test than Liberty was, but I like North Carolina to move the ball at will tonight and build a big early lead.
It will be up to this UNC defense to bring it home and hold the Aztecs down, but with a 7-2 ATS run in their last nine games overall, UNC knows how to close out games strong. The Tar Heels are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 at home and 4-1 ATS after their last five victories, so look for the home side to win this one by 20+
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