I went 2-1 with my free selections last night but it was my top play on Toronto that was the loser. Thankfully the Padres came in as a big dog for me to basically split my MLB plays (-$4) and Winnipeg rolled as the BC Lions definitely looked flat and got caught in a sandwich game. A profitable night is a profitable night though and I’m looking to keep it rolling for you today.
All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs
Play of the day in Bold
MLB pre-All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)
MLB post-All Star Break: 11-5 (+$1928)
CFL YTD: 3-3 (+$288)
MLB plays
Minnesota Twins ML (+164) $200 to win $328
San Francisco ML (+176) $200 to win $352
I’m grouping these two plays together as I believe there is some great value in going against two of the best left-handed pitchers in the game. Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw have been lights out for their respective teams this season and will always garner a lot of public action ( 91% and 83% as I write this) but you know I’ve got no problem going against the majority with my plays.
For Sale and the White Sox, they’ve taken the first two games of this four-game set with the Twins. They face a rookie lefty in Logan Darnell tonight and I like to back pitchers in their first career start. For one, nobody on the Sox has ever faced Darnell and the coaching staff doesn’t have extensive research on him and that always favors the pitcher. Chicago is already a team that doesn’t hit lefties as well as they do righties and if Darnell can match Sale out for out early on his (and the Twins) confidence will only grow. Minnesota is 4-1 SU in their last five Game 3’s of a series and with Chicago being 3-9 SU the last 12 times Sale’s been a road favorite and 2-6 SU in his last eight on the road against a losing team there is plenty of value at +164 with Minnesota tonight.
Regarding the Giants, they were beat up by the Dodgers last night and will be out for revenge. The NL West is going to come down to these two rivals and the Giants would love to make a statement that they can beat L.A’s best. In fact, SF already has a win over Kershaw this season (7-4) and are 3-2 SU the last five times they’ve faced him going back to last year.
But what really has me liking this play is the fact that Vogelsong’s history against L.A can’t be ignored either. SF is 5-0 SU the last five times he’s faced the Dodgers (three times this season) and are 8-2 SU the last 10 times he’s faced the Dodgers going back to late 2011. With numbers like that it’s tough not to like Vogelsong’s chances of a strong duel with Kershaw and at +176 there is plenty of value in taking this home dog.
CFL Plays
Hamilton -7 (-106) $318 to win $300
Last night I spoke about a letdown, sandwich spot for BC and the Lions were flat from the get-go. Tonight’ we’ve got a similar situation with the Ottawa Redblacks as they are coming off their first win in franchise history. The emotion was high in Ottawa last week with that win and it’s impossible for them to match that level tonight.
On the other side we’ve got Hamilton – last year’s Grey Cup loser – still searching for their first win of the year. Shaky QB play and turnovers have been their downfall early this year but they showed some signs of turning it around last week in a hard-fought game against Calgary and it will come full circle tonight. The fact that a winless team is laying a touchdown is no accident either as I’m expecting the Tiger Cats to cruise to a 14+ point win tonight.
Leave A Comment