It was a 1-1-1 day yesterday with my top play on over in Oakland/Baltimore cashing, Texas losing, and my total on the Dodgers game becoming void after the game was cut short due to weather. For those wondering about how bets work on games like that, totals must go at least 8.5 innings to be official while sides only need to go the requisite five innings to declare a winner. That’s something to keep in mind should you be betting on games with questionable weather.
There is baseball and Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals on the card tonight so let’s get right to the picks.
All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts “to win” on favorites and flat on underdogs
Play of the Day in Bold
NBA YTD: 12-13-1 (-$187)
NHL YTD: 9-13-3 (-$417)
MLB YTD: 54-59-8 (+$280)
MLB Plays
Cincinnati ML (-115) $230 to win $200
The Reds dropped two of three out in L.A a few weeks back but as this four-game series starts the Reds are out for revenge. I’ve talked about Cincinnati’s struggles this season against left-handed pitching, but the Dodgers actually have a worse average (.206) against southpaw starters. Tony Cingrani has run into some sophomore struggles so far this year but when he is on, he’s got some of the best stuff in the National League.
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in their last six against a right-handed starter and they are 4-1 SU after their last five victories. Dan Haren has been good for L.A this season but he is far from special and the Dodgers are 0-4 SU in his last four starts. That run goes to 0-5 SU when Haren is up against a losing team and both runs will continue tonight.
Cleveland/Texas Over 9.5 (-110) $330 to win $300
Cleveland and Texas finish up a four-game wrap around series and with Cleveland ahead 2-1 already, they are looking to leave town with yet another win. But it’s runs I’m looking for tonight as two pitchers that have allowed more hits than innings pitched this year.
Cleveland’s T.J House as allowed 4.7 runs per start this year in giving up 22 hits so far. Both of those numbers should go up as Texas mashes left-handed pitching (.275 team avg), and is out to salvage a series split. The Rangers are 5-1 O/U in their last six at home and have a 7-3-2 O/U mark in their last 12 against a southpaw.
The Rangers are also 5-1 O/U in Nick Martinez’s six starts, thanks in large part to the 6.2 runs per game of support they’ve given him all year. Texas needs all those runs with Martinez on the hill as he’s got a 4.76 ERA over his last three outings and given up 26 hits in only 17 innings of work. He’s not going to overpower opponents and when he falls behind he’s got to come into the middle of the plate and that’s when he gets crushed.
Cleveland is 8-2-1 O/U in their last 11 on the road against a righty and we should see plenty of runs tonight.
NHL Plays
LA/NYR Under 5 (-102) $204 to win $200
I’m going back to the well again with this play tonight, hoping that a scenery shift to New York sees the defenses come out in full force. New York prefers to play a defensive style and have better success with it at home and the Kings know they need to tighten things up and not fall behind again on the road. L.A has been playing with fire going down early and not holding a lead at all in this series before winning Games 1 and 2 in OT, so if the Kings want to grab a stranglehold on this series, they are going to have to tighten up defensively.
The Rangers are comfortable playing a low-scoring game and desperately need a win tonight to get back in the series. It’s now or never for New York and playing that up-and-down game with the Kings hasn’t worked out for them.
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