I’ll start this piece off with a minor disclaimer stating I don’t follow soccer at all and have had a tough time getting into it my entire life. But since sports betting has become a huge part of my work the last decade, there are some strategies I’ve found to be successful in big tournaments like the World Cup and Euro Cup. These are bets I have no problem getting down on when the time comes later in the tournament.

Strategy #1: Third Place Game OVER the total

This is a play I can guarantee you I’ll be on this year. The logic behind it is simple. These two teams are extremely disappointed about falling one game short of their ultimate goal and yet they have to go out there and play one more game. With soccer being such a structured, defensive-minded game, it’s in this game that the teams open it up tremendously with nothing left to play for. No one remember’s 3rd place so the stars might as well go out there and try to score internationally and give the fans a show.

In 2010 we saw a 3-2 score from this game, 2006 saw a 3-1 score, 2002 saw a 3-2 score, 1998 was 2-1 and 1994 finished with a 4-0 score in this game. With totals in soccer generally being set at 2.5, all five of the past 3rd place games would have cashed an ‘over’ bet and I don’t believe it will change in 2014.

Again, there isn’t much reason for these teams to pack things in defensively as the big trophy is out of reach at this point and the scorers look to shine.

Strategy #2: Semi-Finals Games UNDER the total

This strategy works in counter-balance with the strategy I discussed above. The Final Four teams are fighting to get into that championship game and that means they aren’t about to open things up and play an up-and-down pace. Defense is the story of the game in these contests with a berth in the Final on the line and the last thing these players want to be remembered for is multiple defensive gaffs that give their team no chance of getting to the big game.

Obviously this strategy isn’t quite as good as the first one and you have to take a good look at the teams involved. Last year we saw Netherlands advance to the Final with a 3-2 score so there will be some Semi-Final games that do eclipse the total, but as a general rule look under first and search for plenty of quality information before you waiver from that opinion.