Christmas is only a few days away, so since it’s the giving season and you readers have been great and loyal sticking through are site issues the past week, I am posting my premium analysis for tonight’s MNF game between the Broncos and Bengals up here on the site. So I wish you all a happy holiday season and let’s look to make it a little more joyful with a win on this play tonight:

Line: Denver (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati (+3.5); Total set at 47 – courtesy of Pinnacle Sports

Now, all of you know that the Bengals are my team, but I’d like to think that I’ve been relatively fair and honest regarding my plays on their games this year, fading at times and playing on at times. A win for Cincinnati gets them in the playoffs with the division title still up for grabs next week, but beating Denver won’t be easy. A loss this week and next could have the Bengals missing the playoffs entirely, so there is a great sense of urgency here for Cincinnati. Cincy’s struggles in Prime time games have been well noted in the Marvin Lewis era, but quite frankly that’s my only minor concern here.

We’ve got the Broncos coming off clinching the division last week and I have mentioned in past plays that fading division winners in their next game across all sports is something I like to do. Quite frankly I was kicking myself for not mentioning that with Sunday’s plays as the Patriots and Colts were both in that spot, and I really loved the Cowboys and we hit with that play. But the Patriots failed to cover as well and now it’s the Broncos turn to do the same.

Denver knows that getting the #1 overall seed is unlikely given that they would need to win out and have New England lose at home to Buffalo next week. Yes, the Broncos still haven’t clinched a 1st round bye, but with a home game vs. Oakland next week they aren’t too concerned about that. Denver is 0-2 ATS after playing a division road game this year (coming off a win @ San Diego last week) and haven’t looked to be the same dominant team in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in their last seven against AFC West teams and are 4-0 ATS at home after allowing less than 10 points. They are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a SU win as an underdog and playing a team off a win too, and the Bengals don’t want to be forced to get a win IN Pittsburgh next week just to get into the playoffs. This is their chance to show the NFL that they are indeed a legitimate playoff team in the AFC and I believe they come out with their best game of the year here. Obviously not many are believing that fact as nearly 80% of the bets are coming in on the Broncos, so this play fits with my minority mentality as well.

This is not a “homer” play by any means as numerous scenarios/situations that I use for every team all line up on the Bengals this week. It’s not going to be easy, but I think Cincinnati wins this game outright as they match the Broncos score for score and get a key defensive stop or two when needed. I don’t do “games of the month, year, week” or whatever, but I’d rank this as one of my favorite three plays of the season so far – with another one of those three being New England ML vs. these Bengals back on SNF.

Cincinnati +3.5 (-113) $452 to win $400
Cincinnati ML (+161) $200 to win $322
Denver/Cincinnati Over 47 (-107) $214 to win $200

(The Bengals are 6-1 O/U before playing Pittsburgh and it’s always good to play an ‘over’ when a team is coming off a shutout)