Winning night again, let’s keep it going………

My FREE play record is below, as always, by sport, TOP FREE play and star rating

1* = $100 

TOP FREE PLAY 2015 –  53-50-3 (51.4%) (-$151)

TOP FREE PLAY 2014 – 88-83-3 (51.4%) (+$1782)

MLB YTD 18-27-5 (40%) (-$1435)

2015 YEAR-TO-DATE * – ($)

July:

1* 3-2-1 (60%) +$106

2* 2-1 (66.6%) +$180

3* 0-1 (0%) -$300

June:

1* 1-6 (14.2%) -$515

3* 0-2 (0%) -$699

MAY:

1* 4-11-1 (26.6%) -$742

April:

1* 14-6-3 (70%) +$987

March:

1* 16-20 (44.4%) -$444

February:

1* 10-9 (52.6%) +$34

January:

1* 23-19 (54.7%) +$501

All FREE PLAY results by sport and year can be found here

All lines courtesy Pinnacle Sports

all plays are to “risk”

TOP FREE play in BOLD

MLB:

Padres ml -105 (sportsbook) risking $105 to win $100 – We are now in the dog days of summer and I now look to really start fading older pitchers.  Colon is 42 years old and is not getting any younger.  It’s a hot night in New York tonight with temperatures up near 32 C feeling like 36 C.  For an old, overweight pitcher (5′ 11″ and 285 pounds) with these hot nights, I’m sure he will be feeling that heat tonight.  Colon’s past 6 starts, 0-5 with a 5.05 ERA and if you go back over the past two season’s he has had an ERA of 5.22 and 7.21 between the end of July to the end of August (the hottest month and season pitch count is higher).  Kemp is 3-7 vs Colon & Amarista is 3-5.  Ross has some nasty stuff, his ground ball rate is 63% this season, averaging 9.68 K/9 and has only given up 3 homers all year long!!  Ross is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA over his last 7 starts and going 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA in four of those seven on the road.  Ross has elite control and holds an amazing 12.7 % swing and miss rate with using a fastball (51% of the time) / slider (44.8% of the time) combo.  With as bad as the Mets bats are this is a huge mismatch in my books.  Take the Padres tonight.

Jays/Phillies OVER 9 -106 (pinny) risking $106 to win $100 – This number has been bet down to the key number 9 as sharps have bet this down tonight, but I do feel like tonight there is a huge disadvantage to Dickey’s knuckleball tonight as in Toronto its an extreme heat alert and for a knuckleball pitcher that is not good news with the dome open tonight.  It is feeling like 40 C in Toronto this evening and for an old washed up knuckleballer, I can’t see him lasting more than five tonight.  Dickey has said he prefers the dome closed as he get’s move movement out of his pitches so with the dome open and it very hot I see a lot of hanging balls over the plate tonight.  Not much to say about Williams he is awful.

Here’s both pitchers numbers on when a batter makes contact with pitches that are thrown inside the strike zone:

Williams – 90.7%

Dickey – 82.3%

Lots of contact and a hitter’s park I’m taking the OVER tonight

Good luck to all tonight and enjoy the games!!