After an all around rough Monday night, I passed with free plays yesterday to regroup. Tonight that’s not the case as the late game in the NBA has really grabbed my attention:

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

NCAAF YTD: 24-24 ATS (-$393)

NFL YTD: 11-17 ATS (-$1926)

NHL YTD: 15-19 (-$426)

NBA YTD: 9-13 (-$998)

NCAAB: 2-1-1 (+$83)

NBA Free Plays

Houston +8.5 (-110) $220 to win $200

Houston/GS Under 217.5 (-110) $330 to win $300

These two teams met in Houston on Saturday and the Warriors ran away with a 131-106 victory. Golden State shot nearly 55% from the field and nearly 41% from beyond the arc as they put up 30+ points in the first three quarters and nearly managed to hit that number again in the 4th during garbage time. There is no denying that this Warriors offense is highly entertaining to watch and with an 18-1 SU home record they are extremely tough to beat. But with this being the second meeting in such a short span and the Rockets looking to avoid getting swept 4-0 in the season series with GS (0-3 SU and ATS this year), I expect the Rockets to play one of their best games tonight as they could come away with the outright victory.

The total is my highest ranked play of the bunch because prior to Saturday’s meeting, these two high-scoring offenses decided to play defense against one another before. The first two Golden State wins came by 98-87 and 105-93 scores, easily cashing both ‘unders.’ Golden State’s offense might grab all the headlines, but it’s their defense and their league-leading 42.1% FG allowed number that’s sparked the significant improvement we’ve seen from them this year. Two of the three refs working tonight’s game have an average total scores of 198 and 198.9 this year, (the other is at 204.8) so don’t be surprised to see the stripes allow these two teams to play and be physical in the paint. The under is 6-2 the last eight times these two have met and Saturday’s scoring barrage has inflated this number a little too high. The Warriors are 1-4 O/U in their last five at home and 2-6 O/U in their last eight against a winning team, so look for that top-ranked defense to make a statement tonight.

If this game follows that script, grabbing the points with Houston is the only option in my opinion. The Rockets can score with the Warriors if need be, but after giving up 131 to them on Saturday, locking things down on defense will be their #1 priority. With the scoring talent Houston has and their propensity to hit the long ball, a back-door cover is always an option here too.