Got a nice easy winner with my free selection last night as Mike McKenna had a rough season debut for the Coytotes and Colorado poured it on as the game went on.

Tonight I’m sticking with the NHL as there is one total I see value in while many bettors are expecting a similar script to play out.

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

NCAAF YTD: 24-24 ATS (-$393)

NFL YTD: 11-17 ATS (-$1926)

NHL YTD: 18-21 (+$117)

NBA YTD: 15-21 (-$-913)

NCAAB: 5-2-1 (+$763)

NHL Free Play

Washington/Pittsburgh Over 5.5 (+133) $300 to win $399

It’s always a bit odd for me to see 75%+ on the ‘under’ in a Penguins game but I believe bettors are tired of getting burned by this team on ‘over’ bets. Pittsburgh has greatly improved their defense this year and they simply don’t have the scoring depth they’ve had in the past when they’d go ‘over’ with regularity. Add in the fact that they’ve been outscored by Washington 7-0 in two games this year and seeing the majority of the action on the ‘under’ tonight isn’t too surprising at all.

However, are you really willing to lay =145 or higher on the ‘under’ tonight when you’ve got the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin on the ice? I’m sure not as the Caps have scored 5 goals twice in their last three games as they wind up this four-game road trip that has seen them go 2-1 SU so far. All three of those games were in California though and all those logged miles could lead to some fatigued legs on defense tonight.

Pittsburgh will not get shutout for the 3rd straight time against this Caps team as they are looking for answers offensively as well. They know how hot the Caps offense has been and how unlikely it is the Pens will win tonight in a 2-1 game, so all those high-priced scorers they’ve got better be able to find the back of the net tonight. I believe they will be able too as this game will revert back to those old Ovechkin/Crosby 5-4-type games of year’s past.

The majority of bets being on the low side of this total clinched these thoughts for me as I think they are playing with fire taking an ‘under’ in a game like this at any price, let alone a -145 tag. The implied value is with the +133 ‘over’ side and I expect this one to cash tonight.