I took yesterday off to prepare for this upcoming weekend full of action on the gridiron and diamond, but it was nice to cash an easy free play (and premium) winner on the Over 6.5 in that wild Oakland/KC game on Tuesday. The Royals are back at it tonight as they start their series with L.A now and you’ve got to wonder how much energy the Royals will have 48 hours after that emotional and exciting win.

We’ve also got four football games going tonight (3 in CFB and 1 in NFL) and it’s there where my three premium plays that were sent to clients come from. It’s not to late to sign up if you’d like to jump on board, but I’ve still got a couple of free plays for you all tonight.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-9 ATS (-$413) 

NFL YTD: 5-8 ATS (-$798)

MLB Playoffs

Baltimore ML (+107) $300 to win $321

When you’ve got a big name pitching staff like the Tigers do with Scherzer, Price and Verlander, it’s no surprise to me that a team like that would enter a 5-game series as the prohibitive favorites. These guys are big names that have each won a Cy Young over the last few seasons and pitching and defense is typically what carries you deep in the MLB playoffs. But this Tigers team is very suspect defensively and their bullpen is trash, so if those guys don’t pitch into at least the 7th or 8th innings, Detroit will be in trouble.

The Tigers and O’s haven’t played since early May when their trajectories this year were at very different stages. Detroit was dominating teams early on and did so in their six games with Baltimore (5-1 SU). The O’s were trying to stay afloat at that time but once the All-Star break game they kicked it into another gear while the Tigers slowly stumbled and had to fight for their division title up until the last day.

Baltimore did not face Scherzer in any of those games this year and they have a 3-3 SU mark against him in his career. However, what may be most troubling for Tigers fans tonight is the fact that Scherzer is 1-2 SU @ Baltimore in his career and all those games have been very high scoring. Baltimore’s beaten him 7-5 and 8-6, while Detroit scratched out a 6-5 win for him. With the way Baltimore can slug the long ball, one mistake by Scherzer with men on could cost the Tigers the game.

Baltimore’s Chris Tillman as emerged into a legitimate ace himself as he was responsible for Balitmore’s lone win vs. Detroit this year (3-1). The O’s have won nine of his last 10 starts to finish the year with that lone loss coming in Toronto the final weekend when Tillman and the O’s likely couldn’t wait for the playoffs to get here. Only three times in those 10 Tillman starts did opponents score 3+ against him and when you’ve got a guy who can consistently shut down good lineups and turn the ball over to a great bullpen you’ve always got a chance to win.

With the majority backing the Tigers and all their household names tonight, I have no problem taking the home dog who’s got the line moving in their favor.

NCAAF Plays

UCF/Houston Over 50.5 (-108) $216 to win $200

UCF has won three straight meetings in this rivalry although the first time they met since 2010 was last year. However, in UCF’s two games against Div 1 programs this year they are 0-2 SU and allowed 26 and 38 points. Houston’s offense got rolling last week in a 47-14 win over UNLV as this program’s emphasis airing the ball out is hitting it’s stride.

Even with scoring 40+ in two of their four games this year, Houston has yet to go over a total and that definitely plays into my decision to play the over. While many would look at that and lean on another ‘under’, especially with tonight’s forecast calling for rain and heavy winds, I’m thinking that will lead to a few turnovers, bad punts etc. that ultimately see both sides with short field opportunities. Prior to last year’s meeting, all four of the previous meetings between UCF and Houston went well over their respective totals, with the lowest combine point total being 60 points.

UCF is 13-3 O/U in their last 16 games during October and love to get their offense rolling on that synthetic field turf, posting a 13-2-1 O/U mark in their last 16 on the surface. Houston has a 6-1 O/U mark when playing on Thursdays and a 27-11-1 O/U mark after allowing less than 20 points in their last game. Houston is also 22-9 O/U after winning by 20+ points, so expect another high-scoring game between these two tonight.