Thanks to jumping out to a 17-0 halftime lead, UNLV was able to hold on to ultimately get the win in OT, but more importantly cover the +10 spread for us last night. It’s a full day of college football again today and while I’ve already sent out my premium plays, there are two sides tonight that narrowly missed out on making those top plays and are my top free plays for today.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

MLB Playoffs : 4-1 (+$970)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 11-11 ATS (-$41) 

NFL YTD: 7-9 ATS (-$528)

NHL YTD: 0-0 

NCAAF Plays

North Carolina +17 (bought 0.5) (-120) $360 to win $300

The Tar Heels have been quite bad this year and have lost three straight coming into this game with the Irish. Defensively they haven’t been good but if you’re a silver lining type person you’ll see that the defense has actually “improved” over the last three weeks.

That three week run started with the Tar Heels allowing 70 points to East Carolina (lost 70-41) and followed that up with a 50-35 loss vs. Clemson and a 34-17 loss to Virginia Tech. The points allowed have been on the decline and while they won’t be breaking any defensive records this year, it is a good sign. UNC also has a date with Georgia Tech up next and they are 5-0 ATS before playing the Yellow Jackets the last five years. But this play is more about fading the Irish who come in as the #6 team in the country and will definitely be looking past UNC here.

I say that because the Irish have a date with the #1 ranked Seminoles next week @ Florida State and a win there would certainly help Notre Dame’s playoff chances. That’s the big game they’ve had circled on their schedule all year and will have no interest in performing their best against UNC this week. This is the classic look-ahead spot for a big time program like the Irish and while I don’t think they should be on the outright upset alert, if the Irish were to lose this game I would not be surprised.

I’m taking the points to be safe.

East Carolina -17 (-106) $212 to win $200

The Pirates are continuing their path to first place in the AAC conference as they are heavy road favorites against a struggling USF team this week. ECU failed to cover for the first time this season last week as 40-point chalk against SMU. It was still a comfortable win for the Pirates (45-24), but SMU is possibly the worst team in the country and ECU backers just got burned by the large number.

This week’s spread isn’t quite as large but with an offense led by Shane Carden that has been on a role this year, there aren’t many reasons to think ECU won’t roll again this week. USF simply doesn’t have the offensive talent to keep up with the Pirates here as they’ve not scored more than 17 points in any Div I game this season. If that pattern were to follow suit, ECU would need 34 points to get us a push at worst and I’ve got them scoring 40+ again this week.