It’s  time to look ahead to tomorrow’s action and give you all three free plays that narrowly missed out on making my premium card that’s been sent out to subscribers. It’s never too late to jump on board as my Saturday College Football cards are typically full of winning action (10 plays this week), but for now let’s get to the three plays that just missed out.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

MLB Playoffs : 1-0 (+$321) pending

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-10 ATS (-$629) 

NFL YTD: 5-8 ATS (-$798)

NCAAF Plays

SMU +41 (-111) $222 to win $200

I’m never one to shy away from backing an ugly underdog and they don’t get much worse than SMU right now. The Mustangs have only scored 1 TD all year and it came on the final play of the game against North Texas a few weeks back. This program is in complete shambles right now, are 0-4 SU and ATS, can’t stop anyone and can’t move the ball. So why am I grabbing the points with them this week?

For one, East Carolina’s bye couldn’t have come at a worse time for a hot team. The Pirates are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS this season and have looked good in all of their games to date. But they are 1-6 ATS when coming off a bye week and are certainly looking past this bad Mustangs team and ahead to USF. SMU is 5-1 ATS after playing in-state rival TCU and 8-2 ATS as double digit underdogs when playing a team off a SU win as dogs, so I actually expect them to keep it within this number on Saturday. They are a team that no one wants to even consider backing right now as all the money is coming in on ECU, but streaks are made to be broken and with SMU 0-4 ATS and ECU 4-0 ATS so far this season, I think both of those zeros change to a one after this game.

Florida State -38 (-112) $336 to win $300

Florida State is another team that’s winless ATS this season but the #1 team in the country has no problem scoring points. Obviously they’ve been a victim of inflated spreads after their national championship season a year ago. But they host a Wake team that they beat 59-3 a year ago and are bound to turn this ATS run around soon.

Wake Forest is 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. the Seminoles, 1-10 ATS when playing their second straight game on the road and 0-8 ATS as underdogs of 3+ in those 2nd straight road games. When you compare those numbers with teh fact that FLorida State is 5-0 ATS after scoring 40+ (first time they did that this year was last week), 8-1 ATS after allowing 35+ and playing a sub-.500 team and 5-0 ATS off three (or more) consecutive ATS losses and playing a sub-.500 team, this game has route written all over it.

USC -12 (-106) $212 to win $200

Up at Arizona State last year the Sun Devils destroyed USC (62-41) as HC Lane Kiffin was fired after that loss. Kelly passed for 3 TD’s and 351 yards in the game but was also Arizona State’s leading rusher with 79 yards on only four attempts. With Kelly on the shelf it’s not surprising to see USC as heavy chalk, but with the revenge angle in their favor this game could get ugly in a hurry.

USC  got their wake up call this season with their loss @ Boston College and they are prepared to make some noise in the Pac-12 South this year. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven at home and 7-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Pac-12 opponents. They’ve got a physical defense that will harass Bercovici all evening and QB Cody Kessler should torch this questionable Sun Devils defense in a similar way to UCLA’s Brett Hundley did last week.

It may seem like a lot of points to lay in a game between two 3-1 SU teams, but the revenge angle is just too strong to not lay the points here with the Trojans.