Good day everyone, it’s a great time of the season and that’s bowl season!! You can throw out the ranking, record and most of the stats from the season. The factors I look at are:
- Motivation factor – Look for teams that are happy to be there (haven’t been to a bowl in a while) or teams that get to play in a new Bowl destination, or get an opportunity to play for a more top tier bowl. Fade teams who made a more prestigious bowl the previous year and are playing in a lower tier bowl this time around or teams that have underachieved this season and have been to that same Bowl for consecutive years.
- Location of Bowl game – Look to “play on” teams having a local bowl game at their home field. Also look for key player positions i.e. QB, RB or WR who are playing in their hometown for a bowl game as their willingness to win in front of family/friends.
- Betting against the Public – This is always key all year round in every sport and just want to emphasize that the public loves to bet with high profile offenses and higher ranked teams and the key is to monitor betting percentages on a team and stay away from the majority. Underdogs bark early in bowl games just look at last years numbers: The first 20 bowl games Favs went 6-14 ATS with 11 underdogs winning SU.
Kickoff 3:30pm EDT
GM #203 BYU ml +125 (SB) risking $100 to win $125
Utah started off the season going 6-0 and ranked as high as #4, after losing three in their final six games they find themselves not in a New Years Bowl, but back to the same bowl game as last year where they beat Colorado St 45-10. That win last year was Utah’s 11th bowl win in 12 try’s. I see BYU highly motivated here for HC Bronco Mendenhall, who’s leaving Provo for Virginia next season. Mendenhall has won 99 games in his 11 seasons at BYU (99-42), including nine this year despite losing QB Taysom Hill in Week 1 and RB Jamaal Williams before the season started. He will be looking for number 100 today and is 6-4 SU in bowl games. I expect the BYU players to rally around their HC for his final game and for this Utah team that could have had a more prestigious bowl game they have to settle for another year in Las Vegas. Mendenhall also stuck around for this game as he couldn’t fathom leaving his team with such a huge rivalry game here especially after BYU had lost the last four meetings in this “Holy War” series by 1, 44, 3 and 7 points. BYU wins 23-20
**Starting Monday next week is my 3rd Annual Visitor Appreciation Week where I will be posting all my Premium Picks on drocksports.com for FREE. I love what I do and I love all the comments I get, good or bad, and want to give you all a nice Christmas Bonus with one week of every Premium FREE. Make sure to check back on Monday December 21st when my 3rd Annual Visitor Appreciation Week starts.**
Leave A Comment