Betting college football does have a few similarities to betting the NFL, but overall is a very different animal than betting the NFL.  Top college players graduate each year and teams are completely different from season to season with totally different personalities.  Throw all team trends out the window, they are useless in CFB and even historical trends as well.  When it come to college football handicapping, thinking outside the box is the way to profit all season long.

A few profitable College Football Betting situations and my winning theory’s to look for during the season:

1.  Revenge

This is one of the similarities to the NFL and if used correctly it can be very profitable.   The revenge card has been really bastardized by handicappers, but when used in the right circumstance it can be profitable.  I look over the schedule each week and see if any team lost to that team a season ago, that had their worst loss.  A loss so bad it was embarrassing and humiliating that the losing team can not forget.  Remember though, in college football teams are different each season and if the QB isn’t the same or head coach left, it’s a pass for me.  I look for this spot and PLAY ON the loser of last year’s game in the rematch.

2.  Let-Down spots

This applies to later on in the season and not in September.  Later in the season teams are more likely to have mental and emotional breakdowns as the grind to the season is in full swing.  Games are played against conference teams and school rivals are big games for these kids and teams coming off huge wins will more than likely be less than stellar the following week.  I will look for these situations and fade that team off a huge win the week before.  Media is a huge influence here as well with teams off big wins especially underdog wins get full coverage and are top news stories the whole week.  Public perception will eat this up, but not me I will look to PLAY AGAINST that team in this spot during the season.

3.  Look-a-head spots

With big games each week to look forward to for players and teams they could get themselves caught in a look-a-head spot.  These games could be against a rival school the next week, prime time huge network TV games, senior day game and a game applied to the revenge angle.  Works more in your advantage if a team is playing on the road that week and is looking forward to their next home game.  These situations come up every week and if you do your homework you can maximize profits each week as the season goes on.

4.  Senior day

This happens later on in the season, but look at PLAYING ON teams with a majority of seniors on them as the team will rallying around them to play their best game.  This play is more amplified if the starting QB is a senior and playing on senior day.  Once again this is a big game for the team and if they do win big for all the seniors, I look to fade them the following week.  This play works great later on in the season as profits continue all season long in CFB.

5.  Lower ranked favorites

This is one of my favorite spots to profit from in both college football and basketball.  Each week you have a new top 25 ranked teams in college football and this one is one of the first situations I look for.  If a lower seeded team is favored over a higher seeded team then the oddsmakers are trying to tell you something.  The higher seeded team isn’t always better than the lower seeded team.  It’s important to find these spots and take full advantage of them.  Patience is key in this spot as well because the public will see this and bet the higher seeded team more times than not and the line will more time than not be moved in your favor when playing on this situation.  The play is more amplified if a unranked team is favored over a seeded team.

6.  Side with the Crazy (OVER the total)

In college you can get some pretty ridiculous high total numbers and more times than not you will see the public automatically take the under in these spots because “no way” can that total fly over the number.  Well think again, the oddsmakers don’t just put ridiculous numbers so everyone can bet the under.  These spots come up from week to week and remember to think twice before you just blindly take the under.  Side with the crazy number and take the OVER.

To sum this all up in one sentence:

Its important to always do your homework each week and remember oddsmakers are smarter than you or me and do not make mistakes, if you think a line looks like an error, it isn’t.