The word overreact (verb) means to react or respond more strongly than is necessary or appropriate.  An overreaction (noun) in sports is an unjustified and over-the-top claim that will be stated as fact after just one game.   This happens on a consistent basis as we are made to believe what we just saw previously will happen again the next game.  Often times after a high profile game sports bettors will overreact either positively or negatively towards the teams involved, sometimes even to the point of overcompensation.  This is one of the biggest sportsbetting traps that can be set in regards to the reaction of the general sports betting public to a previous game, particularly if it was a high profile game.

Here’s how to turn that short-term thinking to your long-term advantage.  One of the most important is a large sample size.  Large sample sizes allow you to more accurately observe advantages that you may hold over the sportsbooks, yet it never ceases to amaze how much sports bettors will place in the performance of a team over the past five games.  With this comes an inflated line caused by overreaction to short term analysis.  This is situations I look for to buy low and sell high in the sportsbetting market.  Bettors will also very frequently use trends and statistics that do not apply to the sportsbetting world.  Temporary abnormalities in game results are much more common.  Full knowledge of this simple fact is imperative when we go over short term results that contradict the more dependable long term ones.  The cure is to not be blinded by one game that you watched from start to finish.  Long term data is a much better representation.  This is exactly what the novice gambler does,  sees what happened the night before on TV and will be missed perceived by the final results.

Public perception can cause one to overreact to one teams performance.  Television and social media can play a huge role in what they can make you believe.  The sports media uses various techniques to convey their message and influence the thoughts of the people on important issues in sports.  On sports media outlets, such as Sportscenter, you will see so called “experts” who voice their opinions on popular issues who seem to know what they are talking about play a significant role in influencing public perception about a team/key players.  In many cases public perception is swayed by rumors and emotions which may not always be accurate.  By and large the public may possess factual information about teams and players which leads to their forming a general perception about general public issues.   Watching, reading and being active on social media can actually benefit you to understand how the public is reacting.  Knowing how the public is reacting can help you with knowing where the betting public is betting each night.  Excising patience and letting the market react to a situation because of overreaction is key to controlling your own reactions before you make your move.

In sportsbetting, the line is set daily to get 50/50 action for the books.  Numbers are constantly being shifted around each day and being patient can have its benefits.  Being patient before making your move allows you to monitor the market.  Being able to monitor market can benefit you by knowing where the money is going with using betting percentages and consensus numbers.  If a betting percentage is considerably high for a team with a line shift in its favor then you might want to find out why this is happening before you make a move just because of a line move.  Some contributors to a line shift:

• money
• an injury
• roster move (coach has decided to sit/start a player)
• weather

Money: Remember that, smart bettors bet numbers and not teams and will more times than not grab the best number before you will.  Especially in spread sports where the spreads are so precise, the smart money will get the better number, so if you think your getting on the right side with the sharps with a worse number think again.  A half point could be the difference between a win and a lose, so don’t overreact to where you see the money going to right away.

Injury/roster move:  Most of the information is known. There will be occasions that you have players listed as questionable or a game time decision. What you must do when looking at the sportsbetting line is determine which injury information is useful and which is not.  If a star player from a team is removed before game-time the books will adjust and so will the public’s thinking.  Once again, don’t overreact to the news of a star player being out of the lineup.  This is actually beneficial as lines do adjust and value is now with the opposite team.  With an injured star player out comes a betting strategy commonly used called “Star player out, others step up” theory.  The injured team missing the key player almost always plays harder with the missing star player being out.  Players on that team usually step up and perform for that first game only.  You couple that with the factor of the overreaction by the public and you almost always get great value on the team missing the injured star player.

Weather:  Tends to affect totals more.  The public tends to overreact to the weather report on a game, especially in football.  The only really concerning weather factor to be considered is wind.

With overreactions occurring daily, patiently deciphering between lines can benefit your bankroll in the long run.  How the public is perceiving a team and not falling into the trap can be the key to success.  Being able to develop this skill as a sports bettor will better your game and grow your return on investment for long term success.

Derek

@d_rocksports

drocksportsbetting@gmail.com