Starting this week, I thought it would be best to inform you guys about some of the early week information I’m scouring over for the upcoming NFL week and give you my thoughts on where I’m leaning early on. Tuesdays and Wednesday’s are a great time to dive head-first into the upcoming week, so let’s get right to it.
TNF: NYG (+3.5) vs. Washington (-3.5); Total 45.5
Tough for me not to like the Giants here as they are 8-1 ATS against a division opponent on the road when coming off back-to-back home games. Eli and the rest of New York’s offense really got it going last week against Houston and with a full preseason and almost a full month of regular season games under their belt now, this new system under OC Ben McAdoo should start to flourish. This is also the start of three road games against division rivals in four weeks for the Giants and if they can get off to a hot start and go 2-1 SU or better in those games, they’ll set themselves up for a great stretch run to claim the NFC East.
For Washington, the short week will hurt them a bunch here after that emotional game with the Eagles on Sunday and to have another division rival on deck a few days later puts them in a real tough spot here. Kirk Cousins has been great since taking over at QB, but with the Redskins being 1-5 ATS at home against a division opponent that’s .333 or worse, I’m likely taking the points here.
Sunday Action
Teams yet to cover a spread
There are four teams in the entire NFL that have yet to cover a spread and while two won’t surprise you (Tampa Bay and Jacksonville), the other two almost certainly will.
Denver -who’s on bye this week – has yet to bring home the $ for bettors this season after they allowed Seattle to end the Super Bowl rematch with a TD in OT. The Broncos get this week off to rest, but they’ll be in tough when they return as they host the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in Week 5 who are off this week as well. Look for that game to have plenty of bettors backing the Broncos, but if the number comes out high, I’ll have no problem taking the points.
Green Bay is the other winless team against the spread and they are currently -1.5 against the Bears this week. The Packers are likely going to grab a lot of attention in this one against that banged up Bears secondary and I’d have to agree with those believing the Packers will get their first ATS win of the year. Green Bay is 13-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 7 when playing in their 2nd straight road game while the Bears are 1-11 ATS off a game against an AFC team. Expect me to be on Green Bay here.
As far as the Bucs and Jags go, both are heavy road dogs this week (in Pittsburgh and San Diego respectively) and with both numbers having a hook attacked to a key number right now – Tampa +7.5 and Jacksonville +13.5 – I would not be surprised to see at least one of these teams – if not both – bring home the $ this week. Both will be faded in droves by the betting public, but both teams will have new QB’s under center from the start and that might be just the shake up they need to get things turned in the right direction.
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