Week 4 is the first time we’ve seen bye weeks in action this year and I’ll let you know about some great bye week trends/systems in the coming weeks about teams coming off a bye. For now though Week 4 does have some intriguing games in terms of the spreads and totals. With three weeks already in the books  many people are already coming to some snap conclusions on who is good/bad this year and we are seeing some inflated numbers pop up as the general perception would suggest that there are going to be a few easy winners this week.

Yet, I see these inflated numbers and they’ve grabbed my attention for other reasons because I don’t think you can come to strong conclusions three weeks into the season about how a team will finish the final three months of the year. It’s a long NFL season and there are always plenty of surprises, so this is the best time of year to use those over adjustments and inflated numbers to your advantage.

So this week’s NFL free picks are two ugly dogs that nobody wants a part of, but QB changes for both teams should be the spark they need to get back on track ATS-wise.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 45-43 (+$2359)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 8-6 ATS (+$229) 

NFL YTD: 4-6 ATS (-$557) pending

Free NFL picks

Tampa Bay +7.5 (-108) $324 to win $300

Tampa Bay was blown to shreds by the Falcons on the Thursday Night prime time game (56-14) while the Steelers got off to a slow start in Carolina but blew that game wide open in the 2nd half with a 37-19 win. It was the second time in three weeks that the Steelers scored 30+ and many bettors remember those two prime time games last week (Steelers were on SNF) and expect to see another Pittsburgh blowout.

However, I’m not so sure about that as the Steelers have never been a great ATS team as heavy favorites and are 2-10 ATS in the Mike Tomlin era when they are better than .500 (2-1 SU) and coming off a game where they scored 35+. Going back even further, the Steelers are 0-8 ATS after scoring 35+ when playing a non-division opponent and  are 4-10 ATS after beating a team by 14+.

Tampa has made the switch to Mike Glennon at QB and although it was garbage time when he came in vs. Atlanta, he did have some success moving the ball. Sometimes a simply change like that is the spark a NFL team needs to get things turned in the right direction and this Steelers defense isn’t what it once was a decade ago. Cleveland torched them in the 2nd half of their game vs. Pittsburgh and the Ravens found success moving the ball as well. Both of those teams managed to score 27+ on this Pittsburgh defense and it’s not like Glennon doesn’t have the weapons out there to do the same thing.

Finally, this stat applies to Jacksonville’s situation as well, but since 2004, teams in their Week 4 game that are underdogs after three straight losses are 95-69-3 ATS. That’s good enough for a 58% clip over a large sample size and you can go back even further. Since 1978, teams that have lost three games in a row and are road dogs of 7+ points in Week 4 are 83-70-3 ATS. Neither of those are spectacular numbers, but when you combine them with the general consensus that Tampa’s a real bad team and Pittsburgh’s pretty good leading to everyone laying the chalk with the Steelers this week, I believe the better way to go here is to take the points.

Jacksonville +13.5 (-113) $226 to win $200

Regarding the Jags, they’ve looked bad in all three of their losses this season and are going to be faded every week by the majority of bettors. Add in a cross-country flight to play a Chargers team that’s looked very good the past two weeks and you’ve got nearly 60% of this week’s early action laying the heavy chalk with San Diego.

Double-digit dogs in the NFL have cashed at at 56% clip since 2004 (199-155) and we’ve already seen dogs of more than 10 points go 2-0 ATS this season (KC Week 2, Oakland Week 3). San Diego is 1-10 ATS as favorites of more than 10 points and have shown to be too inconsistent in the past to cover a big number like this. With the Jags also fitting in that 95-69-3 ATS spot, I believe we see this game stay within single digits.