I passed on free plays for yesterday’s NFL action as I had 8 premium plays for subscribers finish with a 4-4 ATS record. Tonight there isn’t much on the board with only two NHL games and the lone MNF game and I haven’t found anything that warrants a top premium play tonight. However, I do have one total tonight that I think warrants some attention for my readers and am making it my lone free play of the day.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

MLB Playoffs : 4-2 (+$670)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 18-17 ATS (-$161) 

NFL YTD: 7-12 ATS (-$1438)

NHL YTD: 2-2 (+$202)

NFL free pick

Washington/Dallas Under 48.5 (+102) $300 to win $306

If you shop around you’ll still be able to find some ’49’s’ out there and if you can grab one I’d get all over it. Prime time games are an astonishing 20-4 O/U this year and while I’ve routinely said that number will regress to the mean, I’m not so sure anymore. However, I do think there will be more unders than overs in these stand alone games going down the stretch as the weather gets colder and playoff races heat up. That’s not why I’m making this play, but it was part of the thought process.

Rather, I’m backing the ‘under’ tonight because I foresee a lot of running from both sides and that leads to the clock continuously running and the game shortened. Quite frankly, Washington must look to shorten the game if they want to win with a 3rd string QB in there and they do have a talented RB in Alfred Morris back there. Dallas has been running the ball successfully all season and that won’t change, so look for the ground and pound motif to be employed by both sides.

Secondly, it doesn’t really matter that these two teams have gone in different directions so far this season, it’s still a divisional game and they always bring a little more hatred to the field. Washington is 1-4 O/U in their last five appearances on MNF and have gone 2-5 O/U in their last seven against NFC East rivals. Eight of the last 11 games between these two have stayed low and with the Cowboys going 4-10 O/U after scoring 30+ points last time out, I think we see this game finish a few points below this number.