Wow, did that pick-six by Aqib Talib sting in the final minute of yesterday’s Broncos/Jets game as it cost me another free play winner for you guys. Recreational bettors jumped out of their seats on the play as Denver was backed at a 90% clip and that touchdown flipped the results for many yesterday – myself included.

Tonight it’s the 49ers getting that kind of love from bettors but rather than touch the side for this piece (I gave my side play out in my premium selections), I’m looking at the total in this NFC West showdown.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

MLB Playoffs : 4-1 (+$970)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 12-12 ATS (+$47) 

NFL YTD: 7-10 ATS (-$897)

NHL YTD: 0-0 

NFL Play

San Francisco/St Louis Under 44 (-109) $327 to win $300

The 49ers are a team that’s always going to get a lot of love in a matchup like this, especially when the Rams come in at 1-3 SU. St Louis has allowed 34 points in three of their four games this season and that includes both home games. But this is a franchise that’s tried to model themselves after the likes of San Fran and Seattle in this division and build from the defense out, and in their first division game of the season this week I’m expecting a tough physical affair from both sides.

This is an important stretch for St Louis as they host the Seahawks next week and that actually puts them in a great spot for an ‘under’. St Louis is 4-19 O/U the before a divisional home game (1-0 O/U this year) and if they aren’t going to be sharp on defense this week, I doubt they’ll have a chance against an angry Seattle team coming off a loss next week.

The 49ers have been solid on defense all season and are 0-8 O/U as divisional road favorites of any number when coming off consecutive non-division games. San Fran beat KC and Philly the past two weeks so that situation applies to tonight’s contest and similar to St Louis’s situation next week,  if the 49ers aren’t sharp on defense this week they’ll have a tough time beating the Broncos in six days.

Tonight’s ‘over’ has been getting a lot of love, but this game has all the makings of a 20-17 type game for either side with a lot of running and pinning opponents deep in their own zone when drives stall. That’s the type of game that I’m expecting and that’s why I’m expecting and that’s why I’m on the under tonight.