No-hitters are a rare accomplishment in MLB, but we do see a handful of them each season. With many bettors going by the “what have you done for me lately” thought process, they look to jump on these pitchers in their next start and expect them to dominate again. More often than not these pitchers/teams are heavy favorites with their stud on the hill and everyone goes to the betting window ready to lay the heavy juice. I am not one of those bettors as after heavily following baseball for 7+ years now, fading a pitcher after a no-no tends to work well.

This strategy also applies to near no-hitters that were broken up late (8th/9th inning) as well as complete game shutouts for a pitcher.

Strategy: Fade Teams with a Pitcher making his first start after throwing a no hitter/complete game shut out and take ‘over’ the total as well.

In it’s basic form this strategy has it’s deepest roots in regression. You’ve just watched a guy mow down a team without allowing a run or a hit and all the media outlets and general baseball fans are singing this guy’s praises. The pitcher performed at a peak level and everyone is expecting something similar from him in his next start.

But I am the one that is expecting that pitcher to regress quickly back to their average form and that means a bad outing is on the horizon. MLB hitters are the best hitters in the world and after you get the best of them one day, regression to the means suggests that you’ll struggle against them the next time you are out there.

There have been nine no-hitters since the start of the 2102 season (not including the team no-hitter pitched by Seattle in 2012) and the results support my thinking. The next time that pitcher has taken the hill, they are 3-6 SU and have posted a 6-3 O/U record in those games. You can take it back even further and see that this trend continues throughout history, but regression to the mean is a big thing for pitchers and you get a prime spot to go against them after they’ve hit the top of the performance spectrum with a no-hitter.

Now obviously this strategy works best after an actual no-hitter, but a derivative of it can be applied after a guy was a few outs away from a no-no before losing it or pitched a complete game shutout. Again it goes back to these starters likely to regress in the near future and with over-priced favorite odds on them (and typically the ‘under’) in their next start there is tremendous value in going against these guys.

So keep this in mind as you go through the MLB betting season.